I guess I'm going to be the one in here who bets on Trump. I remember how 2000 went down and I don't see Biden forcing the issue, which is what I think decides the outcome this time more than the number of votes counted. Also, when considering votes, elections are won on turnout, Trump is juicing the pandemic, and only one team has supporters who are willing to literally die for the cause. I'll repeat my forecast from the old sub:
- Trump legitimately wins the EC count, but not the popular vote.
- He cheats anyway and gets caught doing it.
- Libs make hay of this and it goes nowhere.
- Nobody ever actually tells Trump he has to leave.
- Biden runs a shadow administration that maybe Apple and a few other companies treat seriously.
- None of any of it actually matters to anyone's daily life and things continue to get worse.
I'll join you and also say Trump EC win. I really think they're going to do some big media attack on Biden much closer to the election that will drop Biden's standing in the polls considerably. If they hit the dems with voter supression (they're already fucking doing this) and decrease voter enthusiasm for Biden, they have a good shot at muddying the waters enough to steal the election. After all, let's remember the presidency win is determined by a handful of states that don't have good election security or voting rights.
More importantly, i think the GOP will retain the senate by a hair. House will probably be more blue but that won't matter with the obstruction.
Feel free to screenshot this and dunk on me in 3 months if i'm wrong, nerds. Your material conditions won't change either way, but at least it'll give you a brief moment of satisfaction before we keep dying of lack of health care while sprinting toward full climate collapse
Matt 2020. (No, I'm not biased or anything)
Non-joking/horny answer: A lot of people feel "done" with Trump due to COVID response in most states. So I could see Biden winning, but it's a "soft" win. I think it'll be a toss-up between Trump die-hards (and the Mask snowflakes that tie into that base) and everyone else.
That said: I was on "Trump wins, easily" before the COVID response/etc. collapsed. So I could put money on that as well.
Either way: We all lose.
(Edit: oh wow, three dashes makes "Matt 2020" big. Not the intention.)
Biden's been bidin'
It's Joe that I'm ridin'
His time is arrivin'
And Trump'll be hidin'Can't wait 'til it's Biden
I'm chidin', deridin'
So that's where I'm sidin'
It's Biden I'm vibin'Whyyy whyyyy why?
Whyyy whyyy why!
Whyyy whyy why?
Why are you nervous, man?!
We know Trump can't stand!
Clinton never had this kind of consistent lead that Biden has had and never came close to averaging 50% in polling averages while Biden has been ~50% since March. Also Trump won because he got all the Gary Johnson voters to defect at the last second (Johnson was polling at 7-8% for much of 2016), there is no big group of 3rd party voters to defect to Trump this time around. Polls had Hillary at 3% in the final tally and she won the popular vote by 2.1%, they weren't that far off.
Without covid or economic collapse, Trump. But in this timeline I think Biden scrapes a victory.
Trump is absolutely too incompetent on Covid that it proves that any concern he'd remain in power after losing such an election is completely bunk. Literally all he needs to do is not say that testing is the reason we have more cases, but he continuously repeats that every day.
and a thousand op-eds are written about how everyone needs to vote in 4 years.
I think anyone saying Biden needs to remember the people saying Hillary last year
Haven't even got an excuse, I'll just pretend I was talking about the #stillwithher freaks
Yeah this is my take as well, either way I got my popcorn and I'm gonna sit back and watch the inevitable shitshow unfold because what else are we gonna do
I would've said this, but now that Leonard Peltier has dropped out due to health issues, it's clear that only howie hawkins can win.
Biden for like 3 months and then Kopmala. Theres no way Trump can win an election at this point, even if Biden is on dialysis
