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  • cilantrofellow [any]
    ·
    4 years ago

    As of right now, 45,000 votes (margins of AZ, GA, WI) separate us from a second Trump term. 2016 was decided by 76,000 votes in WI, MI, and PA

    but Biden’s win was a total landslide!!

      • cilantrofellow [any]
        ·
        4 years ago

        No most aren’t certified so I’m sure it will change but the margins are going to be similar or worse than last election which is appalling

      • ArmedHostage [none/use name]
        ·
        4 years ago

        It's up to state legislatures to certify the results, they could conceivably just pick a bunch of faithless electors that vote for Trump but that's unlikely. Also, congress and the senate can accept or not accept each states electors - meaning the senate could just say "we aren't counting Pennsylvania and Arizona" or whatever combination in a last-ditch effort to get in Trump (also, there's no real mechanism for how to deal with the Senate and Congress not agreeing in a joint session and no procedures or precedence to guide them).

        It's very unlikely that the GOP will do any of the above for Trump. But it is cool to know that there are a number of levers they get to just veto an election in favor of themselves.

    • MemesAreTheory [he/him, any]
      3·
      4 years ago

      That's a little apples and oranges. I think you'd have to include Michigan in this comparison, given that it went for Trump in 2016. That adds almost 150k votes to the margin Biden won by.

      Still hardly the landslide democrats dream of/lie to themselves about, but winning by 200k votes in key states is quite a bit more than 45k.

        • MemesAreTheory [he/him, any]
          2·
          4 years ago

          That's an arbitrary split. If we removed Georgia, Arizona, and Michigan, but Biden kept Wisconsin, then Trump also wins. The only thing the three you listed have in common is that the vote totals are VERY close. The fact is all of those states, including Michigan, went for Trump last time. Excluding Michigan makes the flip seem smaller than it actually is.

          • cilantrofellow [any]
            1·
            4 years ago

            ... dude what, of course that’s why I chose them that’s how elections work.

            It’s not arbitrary to choose the states with the slimmest margins as the ones most likely to flip. If you deleted 22,000 votes for Biden in every state he would still win Michigan and lose the election. But you only delete 20, 000 votes from every state Biden still wins in Wisconsin (and Michigan) and wins the race despite losing AZ and GA. Michigan (and PA) is irrelevant to changing the outcome.

            • MemesAreTheory [he/him, any]
              ·
              4 years ago

              Man I had written this whole thing trying to explain my position, but electoralism (and certainly the electoral College) is garbage anyway and it's a waste of mine and your time.

              I get your point, it's just one of a hundred different ways to present the data to spin a narrative. Focus on whatever you want, it doesn't actually matter.