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Weird! When I click on that link, there's no predictions for who's going to win the 2020 presidential election, which is quite unlike what they did in 2016. I wonder why?
538 gave Clinton a 70% chance of winning on Election Day. It was 90% before the Comey Letter.
there wasn't anything wrong with the polls
See my link below. I was referring to MSNBC which actually published a 99% prediction. New York Times was at 85%. 538 at least had the dignity to stop doing predictions.
15% and 1% are not similar predictions. 15% is roughly the probability of throwing a D6 and getting a 6, that is, fairly unlikely but very possible. 1% is roughly the probability of throwing three D6's and getting either 6-6-6 or 5-5-5, i.e. extremely unlikely.
I'm not sure it's really very useful to assign probabilities to election outcomes, since they're rare, one-off, highly unpredictable events. But predicting that something will happen with probability 85%, and then it not happening, is not an inherently bad prediction. Iirc the 99% one was pretty stupid and made some obviously flawed assumptions.
Also I think 538 just haven't got theirs ready yet. There's no way Nate Pewter can resist building a wildly overcomplicated model that basically just outputs "yeah, the person who's leading the polls will probably win, but we don't know for sure" in a numerical form that he knows most people don't understand.
The joke is in thinking OH, GA, FL, and TX will have anything resembling free and fair elections.
Even when the Dems are running things in my home district of Harris County, we've got 7-hour lines at predominantly minority Texas Southern University.
COVID is just going to make the ratfuckery worse. I fully anticipate thousands of ballots "lost in the mail" and polling stations spontaneously shut down amid a slew of COVID call-in scares.
Donald Trump: New York Real-Estate Mogul, or Florida Man?
You decide!
That's literally not possible unless a sizable portion of hispanics vote for someone who wants them deported.
This is the Lib version of Warhammer 40K chuds writing fanfic where everything is going swimmingly for the Empire
Man you guys have to change to a Parliamentary system. There's a special joy in watching a PM win the election but lose his home seat and have to vacate to some backstabbing ghoul.
A light prison sentence is a reasonable punishment for a minor crime, yet everyone inside a prison is a C R I M I N A L who is irredeemable and needs the harshest punishment possible.
It's one of my least favorite contradictions of our culture.
I mean, there'll be so much ratfuckery that it will at least be fun to bring it up next time the
CIAOAS says some Latin American country didn't have free and fair elections...
I don't get why so many people think Florida is a solid-red state. Obama won it twice and Trump won it by 1%. It's a state that swings back and forth constantly and almost always has slim margins.
Anyone who says Texas is a tossup hasn’t ever been to Texas. It’s a Lean R state in the best case scenario, if a strong challenger (yes, I am calling Beto a strong challenger.) against Ted Cruz loses by 3 points then theres no way that Trump will lose unless he condemns Austin to a nuclear bomb strike.
Even then, Texas chuds hate Austin. Nuking it probably would secure Texas as a GOP state indefinitely.
Really confused why so many in this thread are so confident in a Trump victory when he's completely fucked up everything this year. He's running a terrible campaign. "But 2016" is pretty lazy, he wasn't the incumbent 4 years ago with a wrecked economy, a disastrous COVID response, and a Gestapo-like reaction to the protests. Biden also isn't nearly as hated as Hillary was even though he should be. Yes he has a base that will vote for him no matter what he does but Trump's base is pretty small all things considered.
Before COVID and the uprising I was sure Trump was going to win. But now I think Biden's brain worms might squeak by a W.
I wonder how tight Biden's campaign manager's buttholes are every time he's on TV. "Please don't say a weird race thing, please don't say a weird race thing..."
Small compared to what? Trump's base hasn't gone anywhere and he'll have plenty of slop for the piggies to rile them up to go vote. Trump being an incumbent is a huge advantage regardless of how terrible he's been.
You can tell he doesn’t really know how to run as an incumbent with his dumbass ads about how the all the bad shit going down right down will be a “reality in Biden’s America” even though they’re all happening right now under his watch.
Like his paint chip-eating supporters don't absolutely devour that shit either way.
Maybe you're right and Biden will somehow eke out a win by hiding in his basement until November. I just have this horrible feeling that none of this is going to matter and we'll have another last minute Comey-esque hit job that costs Biden vital swing states and the election. Presidential elections aren't by popular vote and all it takes is for those 35% to show up in the right states.
You're not takin into account the extraordinary amount of cheating that is going happen, even compared to previous elections
I know this is nerd shit but where the hell is 538's forecast map? I thought it would be out there by now.
They stopped forecasting after they were largely wrong in the primaries, in the election before that, in the election before that, and in the election before that...
Yeah Silver was a hack who got lucky and cashed out on it. Good for him, but just take your money and go away. Lol.
They gave Trump a 30% chance of winning in 2016, I would say out of anyone they were the most correct
