NATO's playbook in Syria will be in play here shortly. NATO will partner with the devil himself if it hurts Russian interests at this point. The costs for the people on the ground in Ukraine because of Biden and Putin is going to be secondary to their domestic politics.
Putin is not as fucked as Brezhnev was in going into Afghanistan, but if this war turns economically ugly for Russia it might break Putin's spell on the oligarchs. Biden was already a lame duck, by 2024 Trump will be in in White House again probably building hotels in the breakaway republics.
What a clusterfuck on all sides. Shame the world doesn't have an international neutral peacekeeping organization that anyone would trust in Ukraine. After the Balkans war in the 1990's the UN peacekeeping forces lost a lot of trust across Europe.
Everyone knows this is about access to a warm water port and Putin could give a fuck about the people in these breakaway regions. Why are people here taking Putin's stance on the matter credulously?
Russia was fine with Ukraine while it was openly corrupt and let them use the seaports in Crimea and Donbass. NATO really fucked up in doing everything in their power to stop Russia from having access to those ports, but stanning for Russia in this is stanning for Putin-style Russian imperialism which is explicitly anti-LGBT and anti-socialist.
Putin has a lot more similarities with the Tzarist regime and with the Nazis themselves than the USSR. Reducing everything to nostalgia for said USSR and someone painting qualities of it on top of modern Russia is peak brainworms. This is an internal war of capital and there is nothing anti-imperialist in supporting Russia. It's a shit situation with two equally bad sides. This is not centrism.
WWII started when Germany argued for invading Poland to save German-speaking populations from Polish persecution and to prevent the "encirclement" of Germany by Western imperial powers.
Not wanting a relatively cold civil war in Ukraine to turn into a hot civil war or regional conflict doesn't make me a centrist. If Russia continues this sort of border imperialism, where does it end? Will Russia take back the Kuril islands?
Imperialist excursions of any kind should be condemned. All that Russia has guaranteed is not the safety of people in Ukraine but the inevitable ratcheting up of a proxy war. All for a warm water port - which we can both agree - NATO never should have jeopardized by backing Euromaidan .
stanning for Russia in this is stanning for Putin-style Russian imperialism which is explicitly anti-LGBT and anti-socialist.
stanning for neo-nazis in this is stanning for nazi-style American-backed imperialism which is explicitly anti-LGBT and anti-socialist. Not supporting nazis and american imperialism != supporting Putin. There is not a "good team" here, aside from opposing American military intervention.
Help me out then and outline them, what are the different sides to this conflict? Also, given what you said about Russia as a contrast, which one(s) are explicitly pro-LGBT and pro-socialist? Genuinely asking this in good faith.
Lol what the fuck no. Begging you to get a better understanding of anti-imperialism and to be less idealist. All the bullshit with Pussy Riot alone makes it very clear Putin isn’t a socialist or supportive of queer rights.
Putin could give a fuck about the people in these breakaway regions
I don't think it's total altruism or anything, but I think Ukraine constantly violating the Minsk agreement gave Putin some great propaganda material about "defending Russians around the world" on a golden platter. Getting involved is only a positive for his popularity, regardless of ports or other economic consequences (which I wouldn't doubt play in as well).
The "warm water port" thing hasn't been important for a long time.
Economically, most bulk exports are by pipeline or rail. Militarily, the most important warships travel under the ice now.
Crimea just isn't that important as a fleet base, even with Montreux Convention.
Eh, considering putin will suffer severe popularity losses from this (I suspect like tanking from 65 to less than 50), it will cost money, and so on, i suspect it’s natsec question exclusively. It’s not warm water port, it’s putting thaad system into donbas, or some shit which scares russia
A lot of countries had their hand in Ukraine turning into the conflagration it is today. Russia propped up openly corrupt officials pre 2014 who were about to sign a 25 year extension for Russians to use Crimea and Donbass for military ports. European Economic ministers looked the other way while Ukraine then openly punished the breakaway regions with austerity while Nazis and their own Army laid them under permanent military siege.
NATO and the US overreacted to Russia's access to a warm water port by dumping money into every anti-Russian group in Ukraine from ~2010 onward and thought that cutting the Russians off from the Black Sea would weaken Putin. Instead it emboldened him to take back Crimea at any cost. Taking the two breakaway regions is strategic to ensure roads to Crimea stay open no matter what.
Ukraine today and Putin are the product of the CIA Yeltsin coup and the Soviet collapse. All these oligarchs sell the country out and pat themselves on the back, then backstab each other for 2 to 3 decades now. As I said, it has reached this point because of self-interest of these oligarchs, especially the US when they are way too greedy and want to end Russia once and for all.
I agree with your read of the situation but if I'm understanding your last point right; even if the DNR separatists controlled all of the historical borders of Donbas (which they don't right now), there is still some 250 miles in Ukrainian territory to reach Crimea by road.
The nostalgia for communism in EE is of the same type that drives the conflict with Ukraine today over western influence..i.e..that means "the good old days when we were strong, and the west wasn't corrupting our kids with gender propaganda". It is not because of ideological commitment to communism mostly, but a mix of missing the good social isntitutions and a solid dose of social conservatism
NATO's playbook in Syria will be in play here shortly. NATO will partner with the devil himself if it hurts Russian interests at this point. The costs for the people on the ground in Ukraine because of Biden and Putin is going to be secondary to their domestic politics.
Putin is not as fucked as Brezhnev was in going into Afghanistan, but if this war turns economically ugly for Russia it might break Putin's spell on the oligarchs. Biden was already a lame duck, by 2024 Trump will be in in White House again probably building hotels in the breakaway republics.
What a clusterfuck on all sides. Shame the world doesn't have an international neutral peacekeeping organization that anyone would trust in Ukraine. After the Balkans war in the 1990's the UN peacekeeping forces lost a lot of trust across Europe.
deleted by creator
Everyone knows this is about access to a warm water port and Putin could give a fuck about the people in these breakaway regions. Why are people here taking Putin's stance on the matter credulously?
deleted by creator
Russia was fine with Ukraine while it was openly corrupt and let them use the seaports in Crimea and Donbass. NATO really fucked up in doing everything in their power to stop Russia from having access to those ports, but stanning for Russia in this is stanning for Putin-style Russian imperialism which is explicitly anti-LGBT and anti-socialist.
deleted by creator
The US invaded Iraq because they were anti-socialist? I don't understand what you are saying.
Are you for Putin-style Russian imperialism?
"Do you support Saddamn Hussein?"
What does that even mean?
Saddam invaded Kuwait. What country did Ukraine invade?
deleted by creator
Putin has a lot more similarities with the Tzarist regime and with the Nazis themselves than the USSR. Reducing everything to nostalgia for said USSR and someone painting qualities of it on top of modern Russia is peak brainworms. This is an internal war of capital and there is nothing anti-imperialist in supporting Russia. It's a shit situation with two equally bad sides. This is not centrism.
WWII started when Germany argued for invading Poland to save German-speaking populations from Polish persecution and to prevent the "encirclement" of Germany by Western imperial powers.
Not wanting a relatively cold civil war in Ukraine to turn into a hot civil war or regional conflict doesn't make me a centrist. If Russia continues this sort of border imperialism, where does it end? Will Russia take back the Kuril islands?
Imperialist excursions of any kind should be condemned. All that Russia has guaranteed is not the safety of people in Ukraine but the inevitable ratcheting up of a proxy war. All for a warm water port - which we can both agree - NATO never should have jeopardized by backing Euromaidan .
deleted by creator
Removed by mod
deleted by creator
deleted by creator
stanning for neo-nazis in this is stanning for nazi-style American-backed imperialism which is explicitly anti-LGBT and anti-socialist. Not supporting nazis and american imperialism != supporting Putin. There is not a "good team" here, aside from opposing American military intervention.
There are more than two sides to this conflict.
Help me out then and outline them, what are the different sides to this conflict? Also, given what you said about Russia as a contrast, which one(s) are explicitly pro-LGBT and pro-socialist? Genuinely asking this in good faith.
Removed by mod
:bruh:
Putin just ranted against communism for two minutes straight last night during his Ukraine speech.
Are you claiming Putin is socialist?
Lol what the fuck no. Begging you to get a better understanding of anti-imperialism and to be less idealist. All the bullshit with Pussy Riot alone makes it very clear Putin isn’t a socialist or supportive of queer rights.
Are you implying Russia can't be imperialist?
I am begging you to read this statement from Kenya's mission to the UN.
https://twitter.com/KenyaMissionUN/status/1495963864004976645
deleted by creator
I don't think it's total altruism or anything, but I think Ukraine constantly violating the Minsk agreement gave Putin some great propaganda material about "defending Russians around the world" on a golden platter. Getting involved is only a positive for his popularity, regardless of ports or other economic consequences (which I wouldn't doubt play in as well).
The "warm water port" thing hasn't been important for a long time. Economically, most bulk exports are by pipeline or rail. Militarily, the most important warships travel under the ice now.
Crimea just isn't that important as a fleet base, even with Montreux Convention.
Don't they already have a mediterranean port via :assad-must-stay:
Not one they can access by road or train.
Eh, considering putin will suffer severe popularity losses from this (I suspect like tanking from 65 to less than 50), it will cost money, and so on, i suspect it’s natsec question exclusively. It’s not warm water port, it’s putting thaad system into donbas, or some shit which scares russia
I mean they already have Crimea.
Russia's actions today aren't going to get it anywhere near these goals
deleted by creator
Yea, there's no way Macron and Olaf doesn't know this will happen. Probably the best route for this situation
It is what it is. The US created this clusterfuck, and now it reach to this point.
A lot of countries had their hand in Ukraine turning into the conflagration it is today. Russia propped up openly corrupt officials pre 2014 who were about to sign a 25 year extension for Russians to use Crimea and Donbass for military ports. European Economic ministers looked the other way while Ukraine then openly punished the breakaway regions with austerity while Nazis and their own Army laid them under permanent military siege.
NATO and the US overreacted to Russia's access to a warm water port by dumping money into every anti-Russian group in Ukraine from ~2010 onward and thought that cutting the Russians off from the Black Sea would weaken Putin. Instead it emboldened him to take back Crimea at any cost. Taking the two breakaway regions is strategic to ensure roads to Crimea stay open no matter what.
Ukraine today and Putin are the product of the CIA Yeltsin coup and the Soviet collapse. All these oligarchs sell the country out and pat themselves on the back, then backstab each other for 2 to 3 decades now. As I said, it has reached this point because of self-interest of these oligarchs, especially the US when they are way too greedy and want to end Russia once and for all.
I agree with your read of the situation but if I'm understanding your last point right; even if the DNR separatists controlled all of the historical borders of Donbas (which they don't right now), there is still some 250 miles in Ukrainian territory to reach Crimea by road.
The more territory along the east that the Russians control the more they can demand Ukraine open the borders to their trucking.
It would be like Mexico preventing the US from trading by road to Central America.
deleted by creator
regional capitalist war does tend to be a boon for communist movements especially with the nostalgia in east europe
The nostalgia for communism in EE is of the same type that drives the conflict with Ukraine today over western influence..i.e..that means "the good old days when we were strong, and the west wasn't corrupting our kids with gender propaganda". It is not because of ideological commitment to communism mostly, but a mix of missing the good social isntitutions and a solid dose of social conservatism