NATO's playbook in Syria will be in play here shortly. NATO will partner with the devil himself if it hurts Russian interests at this point. The costs for the people on the ground in Ukraine because of Biden and Putin is going to be secondary to their domestic politics.
Putin is not as fucked as Brezhnev was in going into Afghanistan, but if this war turns economically ugly for Russia it might break Putin's spell on the oligarchs. Biden was already a lame duck, by 2024 Trump will be in in White House again probably building hotels in the breakaway republics.
What a clusterfuck on all sides. Shame the world doesn't have an international neutral peacekeeping organization that anyone would trust in Ukraine. After the Balkans war in the 1990's the UN peacekeeping forces lost a lot of trust across Europe.
Everyone knows this is about access to a warm water port and Putin could give a fuck about the people in these breakaway regions. Why are people here taking Putin's stance on the matter credulously?
Russia was fine with Ukraine while it was openly corrupt and let them use the seaports in Crimea and Donbass. NATO really fucked up in doing everything in their power to stop Russia from having access to those ports, but stanning for Russia in this is stanning for Putin-style Russian imperialism which is explicitly anti-LGBT and anti-socialist.
The US invaded Iraq because they were anti-socialist? I don't understand what you are saying.
Are you for Putin-style Russian imperialism?
are you for putin-style Russian imperialism
"Do you support Saddamn Hussein?"
stanning for Russia in this is stanning for Putin-style Russian imperialism which is explicitly anti-LGBT and anti-socialist.
stanning for neo-nazis in this is stanning for nazi-style American-backed imperialism which is explicitly anti-LGBT and anti-socialist. Not supporting nazis and american imperialism != supporting Putin. There is not a "good team" here, aside from opposing American military intervention.
Help me out then and outline them, what are the different sides to this conflict? Also, given what you said about Russia as a contrast, which one(s) are explicitly pro-LGBT and pro-socialist? Genuinely asking this in good faith.
stanning for Russia in this is stanning for Putin-style Russian imperialism which is explicitly anti-LGBT and anti-socialist
:bruh:
Putin just ranted against communism for two minutes straight last night during his Ukraine speech.
Are you claiming Putin is socialist?
Lol what the fuck no. Begging you to get a better understanding of anti-imperialism and to be less idealist. All the bullshit with Pussy Riot alone makes it very clear Putin isn’t a socialist or supportive of queer rights.
Putin could give a fuck about the people in these breakaway regions
I don't think it's total altruism or anything, but I think Ukraine constantly violating the Minsk agreement gave Putin some great propaganda material about "defending Russians around the world" on a golden platter. Getting involved is only a positive for his popularity, regardless of ports or other economic consequences (which I wouldn't doubt play in as well).
The "warm water port" thing hasn't been important for a long time. Economically, most bulk exports are by pipeline or rail. Militarily, the most important warships travel under the ice now.
Crimea just isn't that important as a fleet base, even with Montreux Convention.
Eh, considering putin will suffer severe popularity losses from this (I suspect like tanking from 65 to less than 50), it will cost money, and so on, i suspect it’s natsec question exclusively. It’s not warm water port, it’s putting thaad system into donbas, or some shit which scares russia
It’s time to end this conflict swiftly, call out NATO bluff, and end the US hegemony.
Russia's actions today aren't going to get it anywhere near these goals
Yea, there's no way Macron and Olaf doesn't know this will happen. Probably the best route for this situation
It is what it is. The US created this clusterfuck, and now it reach to this point.
A lot of countries had their hand in Ukraine turning into the conflagration it is today. Russia propped up openly corrupt officials pre 2014 who were about to sign a 25 year extension for Russians to use Crimea and Donbass for military ports. European Economic ministers looked the other way while Ukraine then openly punished the breakaway regions with austerity while Nazis and their own Army laid them under permanent military siege.
NATO and the US overreacted to Russia's access to a warm water port by dumping money into every anti-Russian group in Ukraine from ~2010 onward and thought that cutting the Russians off from the Black Sea would weaken Putin. Instead it emboldened him to take back Crimea at any cost. Taking the two breakaway regions is strategic to ensure roads to Crimea stay open no matter what.
Ukraine today and Putin are the product of the CIA Yeltsin coup and the Soviet collapse. All these oligarchs sell the country out and pat themselves on the back, then backstab each other for 2 to 3 decades now. As I said, it has reached this point because of self-interest of these oligarchs, especially the US when they are way too greedy and want to end Russia once and for all.
I agree with your read of the situation but if I'm understanding your last point right; even if the DNR separatists controlled all of the historical borders of Donbas (which they don't right now), there is still some 250 miles in Ukrainian territory to reach Crimea by road.
The more territory along the east that the Russians control the more they can demand Ukraine open the borders to their trucking.
It would be like Mexico preventing the US from trading by road to Central America.
regional capitalist war does tend to be a boon for communist movements especially with the nostalgia in east europe
The nostalgia for communism in EE is of the same type that drives the conflict with Ukraine today over western influence..i.e..that means "the good old days when we were strong, and the west wasn't corrupting our kids with gender propaganda". It is not because of ideological commitment to communism mostly, but a mix of missing the good social isntitutions and a solid dose of social conservatism
Preparing for the us to claim this is in fact the invasion they were warning about
The US has been saying that Russia was going to target Kyiv as part of an invasion, just peacekeepers in the Donbas isn’t that
To be more precise, the current areas they've "invaded" are areas that Russian troops have already been in for several years. All that really changed today was that Putin made their presence official.
Not to say that what Putin is doing is "good," but you reap what you sow, and maybe if NATO hadn't lied so much to Russia over the years things would be different. Innocent civilians getting caught in the crossfire has certainly never stopped NATO before.
Canada airborne inserting "Peacekeepers" into Korea, the last time they would ever deploy paratroopers as such
Never give Nato the benefit of the doubt
The west, particularly the United States, does not respect Russia’s red line of admitting Ukraine to NATO. Russia will wreck Ukraine to show the West they are serious. Ukraine begs the West to stop and as a result never gets admitted to the EU and NATO. If it moves closer to the EU, it will end up limping into EU after Russia ruins it. This is what happens to your country when it’s a pawn of Imperial powers.
Russia will wreck Ukraine to show the West they are serious.
I sincerely doubt this. Unless you just mean what they are already doing in recognizing and defending Donetsk and Luhansk.
https://youtu.be/JrMiSQAGOS4
Go to 43 minutes for implications for Ukraine.
Imperial power putting peacekeeping troops in a rebel state not acknowledged by most of the world
It's okay if we do it in Taiwan tho:porky-scared-flipped: Noooooooooo what about the tanks rolling into Kiev? What about the decapitation artillery and airstrikes?
Like what position? It's been 7 years of shelling and a lot of citizens already fled, with this, the potential of war is close to zero, unless the comedian are suicidal.
One of the things we can retaliate with is the fact that they were evacuating people from fucking Kiev
Damn thanks, gonna hold on to that one.
Even if Ukraine had agreed to fully implement Minsk, they would have claimed that Russia had invaded “in spirit” or something
My guess is that Biden isn't going to do shit. There will probably will be sanctions, though.
Good. Putin is only doing this to protect his own country’s interests, but Donetsk and Luhansk are both anti-fascist states with a decent socialist base in them.
You do realize that the socialism they support is very different from the socialism this site generally supports? And that they are heavily chauvinistic and nationalistic. There are no good guys here and the whole situation is only good as far as we will see fash killing other fash. But a lot of innocent people will aslo die along the way
Chauvinist socialists are far from optimal, but also the best you can hope for in the region right now.
Chauvinism, just like other conservative/regressive ideas can not be done away by force. It requires the culture to gradually change, preferably during a long period of peace and stability. It sucks, but that's how things usually go.
There is also a little interesting thought Yugopnik added on this topic. Hyper-masculinity can be easily twisted towards socialist ends. I paraphrase:"Do you think its manly to get assfucked by your boss abd just take it?"
Capitalism can be broken by getting the means of production into the hands of the workers, and during that period feminism tended to also always gain a lot of ground.
I'd say take the wins where we get them. Chauvinist socialists still beat hyper chauvinist fascists any day.
Thats the thing tho, those people have a very different view of what socialism is, compared to people over here. Conservatism is a big part of it. And today nationalism as well. And antisemitism too. It is nominally socialism, but it is in no way different that the fascism in ukraine. Like the names of the ideologies here are just for aesthetics, the underlying actual beliefs and dispositions are the same. The socialism espoused here is not the words of Lenin, or Marx or whatever, but a jerkoff over tanks with red stars, strong masculine hierarchy and the ability to make the gays go away. There is very little material analysis going on, and very little Marxism and very little interest in worker controlled means of production.
And I personally do not have the time to wait for the long time of peace and stability to pass to be treated like a human being or not murdered on the streets. So no, this is not a win for socialism, or a win at all, beyond two fascist factions fighting each other being a win.
Call it critical support and move away. I wouldn't have the nerve to wait through the long period of peace either, mostly because it'd take generations, but what can you do? It really is the only way that progressive social changes have occured historically.
The presence of exploitative capitalism plunging people into poverty surely doesn't help.
I mean, Ideally, you get a Vanguard party to lead and correct the people's reactionary views via discourse and using the Mass Line to direct the people's frustration to it's actual material causes.
Unfortunately, the Communist parties of these regions are mostly moribund with 90s era leaders, though there are some positive exceptions and young progressive factions.
It really is the only way that progressive social changes have occured historically.
Not really. Progressive changes occur through struggle and direct action fairly often. Relying on purely history is pretty reactive and does not guarantee you anywhere nearly the same degree of success. I dont mind critically supporting things, but this aint one of the situation that deserves any.
Of course it's direct actions and struggles that make way for progressive changes, but it's a lot easier to concentrate on those without the boot of capital pushing down on your neck.
