Every other day I get an email from Nancy Pelosi saying that the Dems are ahead in this race or that race. Are they really doing that good? I can understand a bump from student loan forgiveness, but with literally everything else going on, I won't be too surprised if they end up eating shit.
Here's my amateur rundown of the Senate.
The Senate is currently 50-50. 34 "Class III" seats are up for election, 14 Democrats and 20 Republicans.
Republicans are going to keep Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma (two seats), South Carolina, South Dakota, and Utah. That's 18 out of 20 seats total, leaving two at risk (Pennsylvania and Wisconsin).
Democrats are going to keep California, Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, New Hampshire, New York, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington. That's 11 out of 14 seats total, leaving 3 at risk (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada).
So we're looking at AZ, GA, NV, PA, and WI.
Arizona's current incumbent is Democrat Mark Kelly, a former astronaut. Arizona has historically been a Republican state (home of Sherrif Joe Arpaio), but has trended more towards the Democrats in recent years. Kelly was elected in a 2020 special election. Since this special election was to fill a Class III seat, he is already up for reelection. Kelly is running against Republican candidate Blake Masters, an eccentric venture capitalist being backed by Peter Thiel. Mark Kelly, being a sort of American icon, is likely to keep his seat by a narrow margin.
In Georgia, Democrat Raphael Warnock (an African American "pastor and politician"), won in a special election in 2020. Since this special election was to fill a Class III seat, it is up for election already. He is running against Republican candidate (also an African American) Herschel Walker, former NFL running back who played for 12 seasons after coming up from the University of Georgia. In addition to his football career, Walker is involved in multiple business enterprises, including a fast food franchise, a chicken product distribution company. In all likelyhood, Warnock is going to lose his seat because the urgency of November 2020 is two years in the rearview mirror and this is Georgia.
Nevada's incumbent is Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto. She was first elected in 2016, replacing Democratic Senator Harry Reid, who once helmed on of the regions most formidable political machines. Masto served as the Attorney General of Nevada from 2007 to 2015. She is running against Republican candidate Adam Laxalt, an attorney and politician, son of former US Senator Pete Domenici and grandson of former Nevada Governor Pail Laxalt. Laxalt was involved in Donald Trump's 2020 election campaign and is a defender of Trump's claims of electoral fraud. Dude strikes me as a failson who will probably blow it, but it is going to be a close election.
In Pennsylvania, two term Republican Senator Pat Toomey is resigning, and the seat is being contested by Democrat John Fetterman vs. Republican Mehmet Oz ("Doctor Oz" from the TeeVee). Fetterman, a former lieutenant governor, is progressive in terms of Medicare for All and carceral reform, but is apparently shit on Israel policy. Doctor Oz has been running an extremely cringe campaign against him though and will likely blow it.
Finally, that brings us to Wisconsin. Wisconsin has long been a Republican stronghold, despite having a strong labor history. Incumbent two term Republican Senator Ron Johnson is being challenged by Democratic candidate Mandela Barnes, the current lieutenant governor of the state. I don't really know what's going to happen here, but the polling has this election teetering between "lean R" and "toss-up" currently.
In summary, the Democrats will lose Georgia and gain Pennsylvania. If they can keep Arizona and Nevada (fairly likely), and pick up Wisconsin (slightly against the odds, but possible), they will actually be UP one seat. There's a good chance there is no change in the partisan makeup of the Senate and it remains at a 50-50 deadlock. There is NO chance the situation changes such that the Democrats require any more than three rotating villains to prevent the dEmOcRaTiC pRoCeSs from changing anything meaningful.
As for the House, the Democrats currently hold 221 seats against the Republican's 212. The Republicans only need to pick up 5 seats to take the House, and this is very probable. That said, we will probably see more than one regional upset in both directions, with Democrats picking up emboldened activists on the issue of abortion access, and republicans picking up the dregs getting swept into this "groomer" blood libel shit as well as the MAGA chuds recently outraged over the FBI raid. Meanwhile, legions of proletarians will not even participate, because by the time the "lesser evil" means voting for a pro-cop "socially liberal fiscal conservative," and a guy who has been involved in multiple right wing coups d'état in Latin America, what's the fucking point?
Working in a long term care facility where half the population watches Fox all the time means I hear all the political ads. I've barely seen any of Oz's stuff on TV beyond "Fetterman is a crazy loony hardcore leftist that will improve healthcare, bring back jobs, and make rich people pay! In Pennsylvania, we don't need that." Fetterman's is just "he's Oz, he's profiteered from healthcare, and he's a fucking carpetbagger from Jersey." I'm honestly insulted that Oz is so pathetic in his attempt to get a political seat, at least be funny.
Ohio and NC are both polling dead even for the Senate. KY has an abortion measure on the ballot that may drive turnout (look at Kansas). Stuff will probably happen between now and November that will move the needle.
You're probably right. I haven't paid less attention to an election in many years.
Senate polling doesn't seem very reliable as of late - the Democrats would have 52 or 53 seats now if you believed the polls in 2020.
The only poll for the Kansas Abortion Referendum showed the anti choice side winning by 3 pts, the pro choice side won by 17.
I want to point out that it's not 'Wisconsin' that is a Republican stronghold, it's literally just an college-town other-town divide and Wisconsin is gerrymandered to shit for it's elections, getting worse every year. This was mostly caused by the TPP in the 90's. Prior to the 90's Wisconsin was a Progressive-Democratic stronghold, but when the TPP destroyed the industrial rural labor unions, funding for local democratic party officials dried up while simultaneously the Supreme Court decision that allowed for unregulated super-pac money flowed from the Koch Brothers, turning most of those people, who would have traditionally been Progressives (not socialists, definite distinction) into Libertarians, which is the still the most popular strand of Republican thought in Wisconsin. Ron Johnson is a creature from that mileau, though he plays off of the Trump and traditional Republican bases well, and as such is deeply tied into the voting areas around Western and Northern Wisconsin. Mandela Barnes, on the other hand, is a creature of the democratic political machines still that exist by the skin of their teeth in most college and hospital towns in Wisconsin, playing better in Eastern Wisconsin and towns bordering Minnesota.
It's honestly a toss up. I think Johnson's going to squeak by with it as Barnes isn't enough of an outsider to actually stir up any real enthusiasm, but Johnson really put his foot in his mouth by saying he was going to 'put seniors back to work', so it's going to be a bunch of money wasted, regardless of the outcome.
Probably not a blue wave, but right now it looks like the Republicans will underperform in the midterms in what should be an easy layup. Killing Roe V. Wade has pissed off a lot of people, and has reminded the general electorate why they hate radical social conservatism. Two months is an eternity in politics though, so we'll see. The economy isn't looking so great.
the loan forgiveness is giving them a kick & i don't think they were liable to eat too much shit anyway because of Roe (specifically PP is spending gangbusters), but who knows. i expected protests to be a lot hotter this year too and i was wrong about that :edgeworth-shrug:
Tthe SCOTUS abortion decision (though really terrible, somehow not even the most consequential ruling...) has riled up a fair number of people who haven't participated in :vote: - I'd be surprised if it's enough to overcome the MAGA shitheads who will always:vote: in the House elections though.
Traditionally, the party that controls the White House does poorly in the midterms. I see absolutely nothing about Biden or the Biden administration that would buck this trend.
Traditionally yes, but I think the overturn of Roe makes this a nontraditional year. The Democrats have significantly outperformed expectations in all 6 races post-Dobbs. The House is still likely gone (though I think the loss will be much lighter than expected, no "red wave"), but I think they hold the Senate. The Senate map is favorable to the Democrats and the Republicans have put awful candidates up in the races that will be close. Oz is hilariously out of touch, Masters has less charisma than the dirt under my toe (plus he's a psycho) and Walker looks like he was hit in the head way too many times. It's not so much Biden or his administration doing anything special as it is the Republicans fumbling the bag themselves.
i think there's some school board shit around here so i might as well tick a couple more boxes for my trouble but i'm not sure how the general :LIB: feels about "protect Roe" kinda shit because we've literally just watched them fail to do that.
some of them take the hard cope and get pissed when you show them the obama clips, less blue-maga ones might be disillusioned and stay home.
I still think they will lose the house, but if we are to go with the funniest possible outcome, it would be Biden somehow bucking this trend
The GOP might have overplayed their hand on abortion and it could be coming back to bite them.
Yeah and he's building a beautiful apparatus to go after violent chuds that definitely won't ever be used against Socialists
argh where's that emoji where the donkey and the elephant are hugging
Hard to say. The student loan relief and Roe overturned might be enough to get more people out, plus the GOP is apparently pulling campaign ads from battle ground states cause they put Rick Scott in charge of their funds so they're out of money now. That'll certainly help.
On the other hand Roe is Dems' fault and student loan relief is the bare minimum... but a bare minimum that will make a significant material improvement in a lot of peoples lives. I think shit like Kansas's ballot measure to remove constitutional abortion protection getting voted down by a wide margin will bolster people
It seems like they'll pick up senate seats but still lose the house
They're polling well above where they should be, still expected to lose the house but the Republicans will likely show one of the worst performances in a midterm of a party whose president is not in power.
Yeah this. Practically every midterm is a blowout against the president, and the only recent exception was in... 2002.
This could be the second exception.
I think it'll probably come down to participation. Midterms see lower turnout as a rule, so the party whose voters are the mouth-frothingest that year (which tends to be the party out of power) tends to do well. Considering that several states have moved to sharply curtail voter participation, I wouldn't be surprised to see anemic turnout carry republicans just over the line despite the fact that their candidates are shit and their poll numbers are terrible.
They seem to be in a better position now than they were two months ago.
Pretty sure that, whether it's a pound or half a pound, eating shit is still eating shit.
