That is also depressing - that when we're talking about a 5-8 degree Celsius increase, that 0.2-0.3 is literally the best that the most capable country in the world can do -- and it will be fought tooth and nail by global energy interests.
Exactly what the ghost said. The media reports 1.5-2. that's already locked in. The most up to date data I've seen shows that we are already at about 1-1.5 C above preindustrial levels. Like, right now.
The actual models are showing our current track puts us towards 5-8C if nothing changes in the way we are using fossil fuels and consumption.
These also still underestimate the way we're seeing positive feedback mechanisms and tipping points occurring like Antarctic warming, disruption of the ocean currents, and methane release from the permafrost.
I think 1.5C is story book catastrophe. 5C is to the Earth what Luke's torpedoes were to the death star. 8C is as incomprehensible as a billionaire's wealth.
Edit: I might have misspoke, it looks like 1.5C is the target which, while still warm and damaging and causing catastrophe, isn't a storybook horror. I think I heard an off-the-cuff about how bad 3C is.
I have such a hard time understanding that but embarrassed to admit it. Could you explain or link to something that goes into why a few degrees matter so much?
Of course. I'm sorry I can't find anything salient about how terrible anything above 2C is. If anyone wants to help I'd be grateful, but I'm going to continue on from here.
My gut tells me it was the citations needed episode 108 where I would have heard something like this - it's absolutely something everyone should check out as it is the official podcast of the Lemmy
It will be fought tooth and nail by the local party too. Coal power use hugely spiked in 2018 onward because the local party officials refused to use imported solar power from western China. They are already doing unneeded production increases as a jobs program. The compartmentalization coastal factories prefer has resulted in hundreds of tiny coal power plants each one going to one or two factories, it's really not good.
tbf imported solar power has massive cost effects, there is a huge issue with storing and transferring solar power which is why it is not popular on a countrywide scale. this is why china is building a fuckton of nuclear plants. its a constant, effective source of energy that you can place almost anywhere due to new tech.
solar does have its uses (re: in a place that is sunny, has no sand, has low wind, and cannot be easily accessed nor a grid built) but it will never be the big player. wind, nuclear, and hydro are gonna be the big players.
Nuclear doesn't look too good either, the Chinese Nuclear Association has continuously lowered expectations and they failed to meet all goals between 2010 and 2020. The only thing that massively ramped up was new coal power plants.
whats your source on that? afaik they were trying to increase safety after fukushima and have continued normal production. china is the only country to not have a major incident with nuclear despite high levels of continuous operation. they also work with france which has a similar track record.
iirc theyre going to be relying heavily on hydro, wind, and nuclear going up to the 2060 mark, with around 25% nuclear projected by 2060 at the current rate. considering how much fucking energy china uses, that is a lot of nuclear plants.
I can't find anything right now, I'll look again later, but here's one that suggests a model that would predict 4-5C, and also doesn't take into account many of the feedback loops that are occurring faster than predicted.
That is also depressing - that when we're talking about a 5-8 degree Celsius increase, that 0.2-0.3 is literally the best that the most capable country in the world can do -- and it will be fought tooth and nail by global energy interests.
I'm sorry, but are we talking about a 5-8 degree Celsius increase? I thought we were worrying about 1.5 or 2 degrees
Exactly what the ghost said. The media reports 1.5-2. that's already locked in. The most up to date data I've seen shows that we are already at about 1-1.5 C above preindustrial levels. Like, right now.
The actual models are showing our current track puts us towards 5-8C if nothing changes in the way we are using fossil fuels and consumption.
These also still underestimate the way we're seeing positive feedback mechanisms and tipping points occurring like Antarctic warming, disruption of the ocean currents, and methane release from the permafrost.
It's very depressing, we need big change.
I think 1.5C is story book catastrophe. 5C is to the Earth what Luke's torpedoes were to the death star. 8C is as incomprehensible as a billionaire's wealth.
Edit: I might have misspoke, it looks like 1.5C is the target which, while still warm and damaging and causing catastrophe, isn't a storybook horror. I think I heard an off-the-cuff about how bad 3C is.
I have such a hard time understanding that but embarrassed to admit it. Could you explain or link to something that goes into why a few degrees matter so much?
https://xkcd.com/1732/
This is the clearest and most concise I've ever seen it presented. I'll try to find the expert quote I heard about that 1.5C comment, one sec
Here's a digestable surface level news site talking about the significance of the half degree between 1.5 and 2 extolling the insanity of 5-8
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338
thanks for the xkcd and the news article. damn that's scary.
Of course. I'm sorry I can't find anything salient about how terrible anything above 2C is. If anyone wants to help I'd be grateful, but I'm going to continue on from here.
My gut tells me it was the citations needed episode 108 where I would have heard something like this - it's absolutely something everyone should check out as it is the official podcast of the Lemmy
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Real Mesozoic hours in here
Dang. Well I sure hope you're wrong, for all our sakes
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a 1.5 and subsequently 2 degrees set us on a path of 4-5 degree celsius by 2100
It will be fought tooth and nail by the local party too. Coal power use hugely spiked in 2018 onward because the local party officials refused to use imported solar power from western China. They are already doing unneeded production increases as a jobs program. The compartmentalization coastal factories prefer has resulted in hundreds of tiny coal power plants each one going to one or two factories, it's really not good.
tbf imported solar power has massive cost effects, there is a huge issue with storing and transferring solar power which is why it is not popular on a countrywide scale. this is why china is building a fuckton of nuclear plants. its a constant, effective source of energy that you can place almost anywhere due to new tech.
solar does have its uses (re: in a place that is sunny, has no sand, has low wind, and cannot be easily accessed nor a grid built) but it will never be the big player. wind, nuclear, and hydro are gonna be the big players.
Nuclear doesn't look too good either, the Chinese Nuclear Association has continuously lowered expectations and they failed to meet all goals between 2010 and 2020. The only thing that massively ramped up was new coal power plants.
whats your source on that? afaik they were trying to increase safety after fukushima and have continued normal production. china is the only country to not have a major incident with nuclear despite high levels of continuous operation. they also work with france which has a similar track record.
iirc theyre going to be relying heavily on hydro, wind, and nuclear going up to the 2060 mark, with around 25% nuclear projected by 2060 at the current rate. considering how much fucking energy china uses, that is a lot of nuclear plants.
Here's an article on the slowdown from 2017, https://www.neimagazine.com/opinion/opinionnuclear-in-china-why-the-slowdown-5896525/
I went and checked current construction status and it does not look that different, they did not meet the 2020 targets.
Aye can you send some links for 5-8 degree Celsius?
I can't find anything right now, I'll look again later, but here's one that suggests a model that would predict 4-5C, and also doesn't take into account many of the feedback loops that are occurring faster than predicted.