I mean, the rate at which people are dying and becoming disabled due to covid can't be sustainable, can it? This country was running on fumes to begin with. Surely a country with an infamously terrible healthcare system, an economy that runs everything with as little margin for error as possible, and a government that has lost its ability to respond to any major disaster that can't be shot at cannot withstand this kind of catastrophe? What do you think things are going to look like five years from now?
It's amazing watching our social structures collapse while the winner of the most important election in our life time is just like, no federal solution to any problems, what the fuck do you want from me, Jack. Not to mention, climate chaos is just waking up and getting out of bed. It's gonna be a fucking long day (so to speak)
I think the country is going to shamble along as a zombie for maybe a couple more decades, again, maybe. I think we'll see a lot of boaters become proletariat and it'll make them snap leading to upticks in right-wing violence. Will we ever go full blown civil war? Nah, americans are too soft to fight here at home, all we know how to do is pick on the global south and we still get our asses kicked.
This, the country can probably hobble along for a surprisingly long time. Culturally I think the US is going to ossify, and politicians and media personalities will put a disproportionate amount of effort into worshiping manufactured "American Traditions" in a futile attempt to maintain appearances. Lol I guess I'm just describing fascism...
I don't think there's a useful distinction. Capitalism always has been just as brutal as whatever we are calling fascism these days. If you know history, the word capitalism evokes the same reaction as the word fascism.
The Negritude movement understood fascism as the inevitable flip side of empire. The violence you do in Africa always comes back home.
Culturally I think the US is going to ossify
We're already just remaking every movie from the 90s and 80s, back when we were winning
Unironically I think I lifted it from a post-apocalyptic show (The 100?). There was a mountain bunker faction that abided by all these Americana trappings for no real reason except for normalcy. Like there was some special worn out suit w/ lapel pin that the "president" wore in the bunker equivalent of the oval office.
I disagree with this from an economic standpoint- at a certain level of abuse, economic riots will begin. No people are too soft for those when the abuse is to the required level.
If it gets to the point where most Americans can't afford to eat real beef regularly I could see that being a breaking point.
You’ll always be able to eat some cheap beef.
The millions of people in homeless camps eat beef from Taco Bell or whatever.
Homelessness and housing costs is the main crisis.
A significant fraction of the population was out in the streets fighting the cops for months in 2020. Even Americans will fight if you push them hard enough.
Yeah I can see fascists continuing to do lone wolf spree shootings very easily.
As long as the treats can keep flowing from global south exploitation, and a "middle class" lifestyle exists for some semblance of the population, even just a few percent, the USA will continue in some form, even if vast majority of people live in terrible conditions.
Even if the US can't continue exploiting the global south to the same extent, they'll just turn imperial methods of control inwards. It's already starting from what I can see as an outsider.
The poor rabble will be kept in check by poverty and the police. Boaters and PMC will be placated by treats and Marvel slop. The real wildcard is the working class in both the imperial core and the global south. If only both could rise up in solidarity with one another we'd get something going.
Yeah, and the boaters and PMC will just further isolate themselves from the rest of society. You've heard of gated communities, get ready for gated suburbs with CCTV everywhere using racist AI to profile everyone.
Suburban psychosis will reach extreme levels, expect chuds to close off their suburbs if they aren't gated off already with their AR-15s and not allow anyone that looks wrong in, everytime a BLM protest breaks out anywhere in the country.
The national guard will be deployed to keep highways and airports open. Food riots will spread, and be influenced by outside groups at the same time, if they believe that it can benefit them. Political factions will use the cover of civil unrest to try target key state infrastructure, and shut down the unrest when it's no longer useful. Maybe in other to further balkanisation, get conseesions from other sectors of capital or other political factions, or a split from the wealthy costal states and the relatively poorer interior.
I'm just applying what I've seen where I live to a US context if possible. But I don't see a way out without a revolution in the core and the south.
using racist AI
you don't need to bother prefacing AI with racist it's very often accidentally racist already due to racial bias in the data sets used
often it is a genuine accident as people use data that they don't look at
But I don’t see a way out without a revolution in the core and the south.
I'll tell you what, the shit I've been seeing coming out of central and south america has been giving me hope. They're doing a great job of pushing back on imperialism and neoliberalism. The working class in the imperial core I have no clue about. I think we all know by now that capitalism is decaying, but it feels like the bourgeois is priming us for eco-fascism. I do have hope that no matter what happens in the global north, the global south will persist and eventually thrive.
You’ve heard of gated communities, get ready for gated suburbs with CCTV everywhere using racist AI to profile everyone.
Suburban psychosis will reach extreme levels, expect chuds to close off their suburbs if they aren’t gated off already with their AR-15s
Every day, Snow Crash looks more and more like prophecy.
It’s amazing that ecofascism is happening and the ruling class gets to get away with it because they’re killing us passively with a virus and negligence rather than actual death squads
Which is why the AIDS crisis was the Reagan admin's dream
this is definitely my coping mechanism lmao. Whenever I read some doomer shit, I feel the impulse to go buy a bag of beans and squirrel it away somewhere.
How long does rice last? I bought 80 pounds last year when things looked extra shitty
Things will probably be much the same 5 years out, although political tensions will be getting pretty damn hot under the upcoming Republican admin. There will probably be violence like with the 2020 protests, but a "civil war" would just be chuds shooting their ARs into the wind, it's not like liberals are actually going to arm up, and even if they did, they won't organize (not within 5 years).
If the US can't manage to do a vaccine diplomacy that matches what the PRC and other countries have to offer, it will only hasten the "pivot to Asia". 5 years is too short to fully see the effects of this, but it will become apparent in the US first anyway, as rapid inflation continues.
Single family "American dream" housing and lifestyle is like the main reason that life is so incredibly unsustainable, and as the Global South chooses to be exploited in ways that aren't exclusively at the whims of the U.S., it's going to suddenly become unaffordable. A sustainable, but comfortable lifestyle is approximately that of a Japanese person, or even an urban European who doesn't own a car (need to check my sources on that). American brains can't cope with that, and urban multifamily housing and public transit are generally shit because they're for poors of course. This is the starch in the kettle that's going to cause it to start to boil over in 5 years. California will probably elect soc-dems who break left of the Dems after Pelost and friends die off and be ok, but Florida and other places are gonna have a real hard time coping with gas being twice the price.
California will probably elect soc-dems who break left of the Dems after Pelost and friends die off and be ok
Hahahaha maybe you'll get a SocDem in SF or LA area, but CA is far from being welcoming to a succ. Maaaaybe if the housing market collapses worse than it did in 2008 you could see this kind of change, but real estate, tech, and agribusiness run this state and is invested in a neoliberal framework. CA just seems ahead of the curve because they are willing to do techno-cratic bandaid solutions like Cap and Trade, Single use plastic bag bans, etc, but the only structural changes the state makes are concessions to the right.
You're probably right, but the electoral power is there, and it becomes a question of how capital is willing to concede as the going gets rough (and yeah there's a solid chance the answer is just CAHSR and medium density development in LA, which is far from enough)
it’s not like liberals are actually going to arm up, and even if they did, they won’t organize (not within 5 years).
Liberals control the economy (for the most part) and their businesses control the government. The liberals are already armed.
The US can simply allow a few more immigrants to enter.
The big shock will be when people who are young and skilled DON’T want to bother trying to make some money in the US. Which is inevitable.
Then the real estate prices will start and to fall and then the global financial system will really make sure to go crazy.
The US can simply allow a few more immigrants to enter.
Oh boy, the MAGA crowd are going to have an extremely normal time when they see their fallen (unvaccinated) comrades getting replaced by waves of immigrants
It will be white people who hate communism. They will be fine.
Basically if any country switches to socialism, the US will gladly accept it’s rich chuds and speedrun them to be allowing them to vote, as it’s how Miami is one of the only right wing cities as it’s full of families who lost their slaves when Castro took over.
Should have done something about it 30 years ago. Since the mid 1990s about half of population growth has been by immigration rather than birth.
They tried. But since many immigrants can’t vote, the pigs are okay.
Western Imperial economy relies on underclass.
Just wait. They will get rid of birthright citizenship and make it only be from parents or approval. Hell they may even try to have it be weighted so that children of people who have had their voting rights removed due to prison are not citizens naturally.
being a felon is already effectively being made a noncitizen anyways might as well just make it official i guess
And by passing it to their children, they can establish a permanent underclass. They will pitch it alongside healthcare or other benefits for citizens to move towards a “European” model.
Juis Soil is probably one of the best things about America as it helps undercut The idea of a monolithic American identity.
The immigrants they all in will be "skilled" people like white South Africans with engineering degrees and rich gusanos from Latin America.
Who else would want to move to the United States? It's already notorious for terrible work conditions among Europeans, Indians and Chinese people increasingly don't want to deal with the racism, terrible public services, etc when there's opportunities at home. Even for rich Gusanos it can be a stretch unless we're literally sieging their country. If you're a skilled Professional in Brazil, Argentina, Chile, etc, what does the US seriously offer you?
The big shock will be when people who are young and skilled DON’T want to bother trying to make some money in the US. Which is inevitable.
Inevitable as in its already happening.
Not quite. The US still hits its immigration limits.
I wonder if the state department will ever allow there to be a moment where there is more space than there is demand. As part of the show is “we sell out of immigration spaces immediately!”
Then the real estate prices will start to fall
Best prediction I can look forward to I've heard this thread!
Odds are better that the the US would demolish homes before they allow supply to decrease demand.
Eh, the soviet union lost ¿30%? of its young population in WW2 and kept going.
Yeah but during that time period the USSR was run by communists who knew what they were doing, not geriatric neoliberals getting high on their own supply
As long as banks and industrial capitalists want the existence of such thing called "USA", it will keep going, the army will make sure of it cuz it's their loyal dog.
Will the US empire totally decline? Only if the third world rebels, but will it happen tho?
Despite being the perfect moment, the world giving the middle finger to anglos and europe might still not happen. In peripheral countries you have local oligarchs who are more than happy to be just imperial dogs, as long as they got a golden passport to snob around Europe/Miami on weekends :guaido: . Capitalism is resilient cuz a lot of people want to be small tyrants so they uphold higher tyrants, replicating the system below them, in tacit exchange of protection from the people below them.
If all the periphery just told say, the IMF, to fuck off, suddenly the US would be a lot "weaker". But you'd need spined politicians in the right place and time, a very rare thing.
Oh sure, you're definitely right that the inertia of capitalism and imperialism will keep the bloated corpse of the USA floating along for a long as it can — I'm just not convinced it could weather population loss the same as WWII-era USSR because its leadership seems to only be capable of accelerating the empire's decline and exacerbating hardship
Eh, did the Bengal famine actually bothered the British rule over that region?
U.S. is too big of a place for there to be a blanket answer. I'm hopeful that a few big cities and the areas under their influence will finally start breaking left and actually doing the things that need to be done to weather larger state collapse. Other areas, particularly the low-lying parts of the coasts, and suburbs in the midwest and south, I'm less optimistic about.
Ain't nowhere breaking left without an organized party to guide it. The best you'll get is techno-feudalism
The cities I'm most hopeful for specifically are Minneapolis and Chicago. Both have strong working class movements that the ruling liberal machines are already straining to control. I wouldn't put it out of the realm of possibility to eventually see Red Vienna-style takeovers in either of them.
Edit: Maybe New York as well? But I honestly don't know much about New York's socialist movement except that it seems to have an outsized number of podcasters and stand up comedians.
In the fall of Rome, the financially viable states left the non-financially viable states to rot. We will likely see the east and west coasts leave the rest of the country behind.
Ever seen most of the Midwest? We've already hit that point.
Yep. If there were barbarian hordes from Canada willing to raid down into the Midwest we would have already seen the coasts just completely abandon like half of the Midwest
I wouldn't doubt it, which is why the Great Lakes area probably has the best chance out of the whole interior of the country.
don't live there myself but always thought it lacked any natural barriers to just being overwhelmed by rouge military or fascist militias approaching from every direction. defensible river crossings maybe?
Chicago itself can be pretty easily blockaded - we saw a dark version of that in 2020 when the national guard and local cops were able to cut off massive areas of the city just by parking garbage trucks at certain highway exits and cancelling certain trains.
Better yet, Chicago's control of the country's largest train hub means it could potentially force concessions from outlying areas that depend on it for the transportation of goods. Though that would mean the city having to seize direct control of the rail lines and yards from the clusterfuck of companies that currently own them.
Something I learned from Patrick Wyman's History of Rome podcast was how truly "uneven" the collapse of the Roman Empire was. First of all, folks cite 476 CE as when the empire collapsed, but that was only the western half - the poorer and less relevant half at that. The Roman Empire in the east continued on for nearly a thousand years beyond that. When Rome functionally lost its grip over modern day Algeria and Tunisia, those regions were probably better off materially because they no longer were forced to ship grain to Rome every year. Meanwhile in Britain much of the economy was based on supporting the legions; so when they left things fell apart fast. All this happening over a couple hundred years.
Collapse is often too fast of a word. The Soviet Union collapsed, Rome crumbled, as did the Byzantines. Most of these states fell because of outside pressures mixed with interminable political problems at the core.
For the Soviets, being cut off from any and all real foreign investments was the outside pressure, and the gerontocratic and unenthusiastic citizenry buying into a new stage of liberalism was the bomb. In Rome the northern and eastern European populations continued to press in and disrupt the war machine, while the citizenry of Rome lacked land, power, and domestic food supplies. What little Republican tradition was outdated and far too complex to be useful. This caused Rome to crumble over the course of a few hundred years. The Byzantines had many of the same problems as the Romans, but the external pressures of Islam could be managed, until a further pressure was created by the Venetians from the West. The Byzantines routinely restructured themselves and created bureaucracy and power structures that allowed them to survive a thousand years past the "fall" of Rome.
America hasnt really had much of an external pressure pushing in, perhaps the only citable thing is trade deficits, moving manufacturing overseas, but thats all pushing out, deflating ourselves. What we do have is tons of internal problems, the biggest will always be and always has been the racialized underclass of Black and Brown people in this country. But even so the political institutions in this country are just completely hollow, they hold no semblance of moral or even physical authority over huge amount of the population. Even conservatives dont think they are subject to the law, and only come to realize they are after getting smashed by cops; of course, not a single politician of any note has been abused while in office or actually held accountable for doing a shit job. And thats all thats left, is the violent oppression by cops, thats really the only thing most americans see as the arms of the state, this is a key problem of devolution of powers + bureaucracy. The federal government doesnt do anything for anybody, it doesnt empower any of the citizenry. Governors dont do shit, and local officials are just rubber stamps for real estate fascists.
So yeah, we still have a lot longer to go before collapse, notably when the 3rd world finally goes to war with us because of climate change.
the material resource tribute is something i think that gets lost when people imagine balkanization scenarios for the US. for example, chicago is the golden idol of The Great West. forests are logged, grains are planted/harvested, rivers are drained, and mountains are leveled for the markets she paints in her dreams.
to imagine the city, any city, as separate from its hinterlands is a delusion. the very second that NY, LA, Chicago or any other wealthy "enclave" cleaves itself from the bosom that feeds it (by severing any pre-existing risk management program), the tightly wound land use patterns of rural, extractive communities will snap. hell, the US has cut so many of these programs already, it's probably going to happen anyway.
older cultures make massive investments in rural infrastructure and community support, because it turns out that's cheaper and more politically stable than having to constantly fight, enslave, and terrorize the plague-ridden barbarians that feed you every time some group of them decides to tell you to fuck yourself instead of sending the grain.
Most people are willing to eat the losses. If in two weeks Omicron rates drop (because everyone has gotten it by then) the country will keep plugging along. Things will get worse, especially public services, but you should never underestimate the American public's ability to discard human life.
Ngl I think the omicron rates will drop faster due to tests and testing capacity getting exhausted
:galaxy-brain: If you make testing kits scarce and laugh in the face of people asking for them to be distributed freely, you can cite declining rates of cases.
My assumption for how it really starts is that sometime within the next couple decades some governor will push back against some federal mandate or instruction and find nothing there. Whoever the Dems trot out in 2028 will talk about how uncivil it is and the rule of law and then they will do nothing with the state apparatus in the interest of civility and every other governor will gradually realize they can do the same thing. And I don't think this'll be a governor of Florida or Texas or anything like that, I think it'll be somewhere like Oklahoma.
I think the opposite is possible.
A lib governor tries to (possibly legally) defy a right wing federal government and gets smashed by them. Bringing about an even more right wing and openly violent administration as the libs just whine about civility
at this point I have to assume the collapse is by design to justify the burgeoning transition into open fascism
As Matt says no one is truly at helm because they're all just captives to the profit algorithm
No, much like the rest of your lifetime it’s just going to be slightly shittier day after day in ways that are often hard to put your finger on.
