The Tories are all stabbing each other in the back, and the Labour opposition is kind of just sitting there, by the looks of things. Meanwhile, the cost of living has skyrocketed, and it doesn't look like it will be coming down any time soon. Wages on the other hand, still aren't rising in line with the cost of living, and a recent pay rise may have put lots of low-income poeple into a higher tax bracket, which means that they are worse-off in real terms. We're heading for the cool zone certainly, if not already there.
I must admit, I haven't been following Johnson's woes too closely. With all the talk af mass shootings in the States and the collapse of the Democrats, I didn't see that Sunak and Javid, two of the top Tory cabinet members, had resigned yesterday; besides which, it just seemed like more people complaining about him having a party during lockdown, which I personally just can't get that angry about. All of the things he has done, and that's the one the public can't stand?
However, it's looking like he won't survive to lead the party in another election because of some more recent allegations about hiring a known sex pest as the Deputy Chief Whip, then lying about it, and because of the loss of safe Tory seats in the recent by-elections.
If he's ousted before the end of the year, we could even end up with another general election - the third in 6 years (I feel like another election would probably happen in 2023 though, which upsets the statistics a bit). It would also mean that neither of the last two Prime Ministers have managed to complete a full term.
What do you guys think?
Edit: as some have pointed out, I was wrong about tax itself, but means testing thresholds are usually the same which means that benefits could still be cut off as wages rise even marginally in line with the cost of living.
taps head can’t have a constitutional crisis if you don’t have a constitution
An uncodified constitution? At this year, at this political situation, at this country, localized entirely within British legal tradition?
Okay, so, there is no practical difference between a codified constitution and an uncodified one. A codified constitution means whatever the institutional powers say it means. An uncodified constitution means whatever the institutional powers say it means. It all depends on normative consistency, like all of liberalism.
I suppose you are correct that the codified constitution can be put up on display or used as uncomfortable toilet paper, but I don't think that makes it any different politically.
a recent pay rise may have put lots of low-income poeple into a higher tax bracket, which means that they are worse-off in real terms.
That's not how it works. It diminishes the pay rise, but tax brackets aren't global on your income, just the new income within that bracket is taxed higher.
Debatable, maybe.
Does the UK share the USA's habit of making government assistance programs based off of gross, pre tax income? Then it could result in getting kicked off of assistance programs when your monthly/yearly gross wages increase. (So like, the actual take home pay doesn't increase to a level that would be the same or higher than the amount of the government assistance.)
Yeah that's a different issue for sure. Raising minimum wages without adjusting these cut offs (there should be none but that's another convo).
True, but it still diminishes your overall income at a time when energy prices have gone up by 50%, and a lot of benefits are means tested so that if you earn above a certain threshold, you aren't liable for support (or as much support, anyway).
For instance, in my first year of college I was eligible for a free bus pass because my household income was just below the limit. That year the minimum wage was increased, but that threshold stayed the same, so mum had to pay for my buss pass. Not sure how much better or worse off she was because of that, but that's the kind of thing that happens.
Very true, and that is also an issue. But it's not due to tax brackets.
Boris isn't going under any circumstances whatsoever. They will have to drag him out by his ears.
What's going to happen:
- The 1922 committee is having an emergency meeting today, they will change the rules to allow for a second vote of no confidence.
- This vote of no confidence will go against Boris.
- Boris still won't resign. He will claim he has the mandate of the people.
- He will force an election and deselect every MP that voted against him.
- Starmer will probably win an election under these circumstances, if he isn't forced to resign by Durham police. A new labour leader at this moment in time will not win an election and Boris will win.
And yes if you're suggesting the UK is in a crisis right now it absolutely is. There is nothing this government can do anymore under these circumstances.
This assumes a couple of things though. I don't know if he still has the power to deselect MPs after a VONC, I don't know if he is immediately considered no longer the party leader or not. There is also not really a good source to read up on the specifics within this process.
EDIT: Or Boris could shock the fucking country and actually step down. Who knows. I don't think he will though I think he's a stubborn shit who isn't emotionally affected by anything. The entire country could be against him and he wouldn't feel negative about it.
I think it's more than that, most politicians actually give a fuck about the goals of the political right, ideologically speaking. Because they give a fuck about that they would resign in his circumstances because they would understand it's politically necessary for the tory party and the interests of the right.
Boris seems to not give a fuck. Boris holds his own ideology of "exhaust every single institutional strategy available to advance oneself". He holds his own ideology above the interests of party or right wing politics in general.
I kind of admire it if I'm going to be honest. He's being a tenant that refuses to leave despite all the notices and is going to smear shit all over the walls if he's forced out.
That's what being brought up on the ruling class side of the education system does for you, and being groomed for rule through Eton and so on.
We are disadvantaged by lacking this on the working class side of society.
Plenty of them are like him, they just also happen to be competent actors.
if only there were people like this on the left
When those people do crop up on the left they have a tendency to shoot themselves in the back of the head multiple times and then light themselves on fire
Death to America
when you put it that way, comparisons of him to Trump seem a lot more compelling than in the past
Boris is much worse. The man is calculated evil. His entire bumbling persona is manufactured and what lies beneath it is an extremely well educated evil shitter who knows exactly how the world works, understands ideology, and understands geopolitics.
Trump on the other hand legitimately has no idea about tonnes of things. Same behaviour but Boris is much much more dangerous.
that's exactly why I have resisted those comparisons in the past.
it's the similarity in not being loyal to the party in the same way and putting your own individual advancement ahead of any real ideological commitment that strikes me as actually being alike.
That scenario seems unlikely, since it seems to effectively include the Tories being governed by fiat. A VONC should remove any authority on Johnson's part to serve as Tory Leader. He can't directly de-select anyone. His allies in the party could try, of course, but that would likely just mean their own de-selection at that point. He's still PM, and if he wants to absolutely screw the party for fucking him over, he can call an election, but I don't think the Tories have a mechanism that would allow him to run the party despite losing confidence.
I guess he could pull a Trump and declare that the vote was illegitimate because the 1922 Committee overrode its own rules, but that just creates a schism.
Critical support for the Durham Police. Nail that weasel to the wall, piggies (affectionate?).
A VONC should remove any authority on Johnson’s part to serve as Tory Leader.
Should... But doesn't mean it actually does.
He’s still PM, and if he wants to absolutely screw the party for fucking him over, he can call an election, but I don’t think the Tories have a mechanism that would allow him to run the party despite losing confidence.
If he tries to call an election I think this will create a decision the queen has to make. She will have to decide whether or not to accept his request for her to dissolve the government for an election.
The problem here is that he can't be Prime Minister if he's not the leader of the Tory party. The leader of the Tory party is Prime Minister.
Surely the rules of the Tory Party don't let a deposed leader rule by fiat? And if they do, surely the 1922 Committee can resolve that.
If he tries to call an election I think this will create a decision the queen has to make. She will have to decide whether or not to accept his request for her to dissolve the government for an election.
One would hope her answer would be 'no', from the perspective of his removal, but that ultimately comes down to the degree to which the Queen (or whomever is puppetting her dead body) feels she is directly bound to the exact demands of the sitting PM. If her office feels that she doesn't actually have to listen to Boris, her answer should obviously be no, but if her office feels that the informal constitution compels her to comply...
The problem here is that he can’t be Prime Minister if he’s not the leader of the Tory party. The leader of the Tory party is Prime Minister.
I'm pretty sure that still requires an actual vote in the Commons? I could be wrong, of course.
No, no vote required, though sometimes when a Prime Minister has struggled to gain a majority it has happened to prove he has it. (and occasionally as late as the 19th century a Prime Minister has governed in minority even without confidence). The office of Prime Minister only exists by convention.
The Queen can in principle appoint her cat, her favourite lamp, or even inanimate objects like Prince Charles to the Prime Minister's position.
Of course like with most of her other powers she gets to do this exactly once and if she's very lucky there's still a monarchy at the end of it.
Hmmmm I'm honestly not entirely certain. Need to find and speak to a constitutional expert AND an expert in party rules.
It's definitely a mess though. Knives in the back time.
Backstabbing one-another is the default mode of the Tories, so really this is just a regression to the mean.
a recent pay rise may have put lots of low-income poeple into a higher tax bracket
Does the UK not have a progressive marginal income tax or something like in the US?
It does have a progressive marginal income tax. Not sure what our original poster is referring to.
Might just not know, at least in the us people don't understand this shit at all. I had a high school teacher that among other things taught econ to seniors, and he didn't understand how marginal tax brackets work. Dude was literally a fucking slumlord, called himself that, and was too dumb to know how taxes work.
That was a mistake on my part. But because of means testing, certain benefits will get cut off if your income passes a certain threshold. I gave an example with bus passes in another comment in this thread.
ah, yeah, that's fair then. means testing does put this effect on people
IDK, just because it means that the government is too busy fighting itself to govern effectively, and the opposition are feckless buffoons.
Edit: nevermind you already answered my question elsewhere
Death to America
Starmer voice I, for one, applaud the Tories knifing each other, and in fact, I encourage them to go further...
If there is a way for it to continue, it will probably continue that way. As long as the powers that be are not splintered against themselves, essentially a crisis between the bourgeoisie, I can't really see why things won't just continue to get worse. Hopefully the UK does a lot of good striking and labor unions point out the hypocrisy of the current labor party, but what will actually happen? Only time will tell. In the US at the very least there is a collapse of governmental norms on a more obvious scale, what with the SCOTUS rulings really ramping up inter-state and party divides, but the situation probably remains the same here for now as well, I would imagine.
Still stuck on the fact that this sex scandal is cause of a guy named Pincher with a 20 year history of grabass
