Here is July 18th's update! TLDR? Here's the summary.
Here is July 19th's update! TLDR? Here's the summary.
Apologies fellas, the mixture of the heat and work has really exhausted me over the last day or two, so I think I will take a break day today and get rested up for the next three days of updates.
Here is July 21st's update! TLDR? Here's the summary.
Here is July 22nd's update! TLDR? Here's the summary.
Here is July 23rd's update! TLDR? Here's the summary.
No updates on Sundays.
Links and Stuff
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Add to the above list if you can, thank you.
Resources For Understanding The War Beyond The Bulletins
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map, who is an independent youtuber with a mostly neutral viewpoint.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have good analysis (though also a couple bad takes here and there)
Understanding War and the Saker: neo-conservative sources but their reporting of the war (so far) seems to line up with reality better than most liberal sources.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict and, unlike most western analysts, has some degree of understanding on how war works. He is a reactionary, however.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent journalist reporting in the Ukrainian warzones.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Telegram Channels
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
Pro-Russian
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ Gleb Bazov, banned from Twitter, referenced pretty heavily in what remains of pro-Russian Twitter.
https://t.me/asbmil ~ ASB Military News, banned from Twitter.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday Patrick Lancaster - crowd-funded U.S journalist, mostly pro-Russian, works on the ground near warzones to report news and talk to locals.
https://t.me/riafan_everywhere ~ Think it's a government news org or Federal News Agency? Russian language.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ Front news coverage. Russian langauge.
https://t.me/rybar ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine
With the entire western media sphere being overwhelming pro-Ukraine already, you shouldn't really need more, but:
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Last week's discussion post.
When even the Philippines are in on it you know the US is fucked lol
Joe, on his deathbed, zoinked out of his mind on a concoction of fifty different drugs:
:biden-troll: I'm a Russian spy, jack! The whole time! Glory to the Kremlin! Oh, that Putin is a great guy, he said to me "If you agree to do a couple things for me, I'll... deal with Corn Pop for you." and that's a deal I couldn't refuse! :DaBiden:
It's old man dementia that's causing it. His probably being incredibly hostile to the countries leaders and forgetful, people with dementia are not easy to be around. And now with this after trump is a sign to them that America is over and they can start to plan for the future.
it strikes me that every country on that list were US-aligned (willful or not) during the cold war. very interesting things happening with so many peripheral "allies" of the US, even perennial favorites Israel and Saudi Arabia, turning away from the US and the dollar
Apparently China has called out Sweden for how blatantly anti-democratic the entire NATO process has been, good for them lol.
Read an article about it in the papers and neither the paper nor any officials made any attempts to dispute that allegation, probably because the only thing they could possibly say would be to refer to unofficial opinion polls, which are not a sign of democratic will, at most the paper tried diverting to talking about how China feels threatened by NATO influence in their region.
Leaked emails from UK intelligence sources to Paul Mason have shown UK intelligence actually advocate "messaging should NEVER rebut. Evidence shows this is counter productive".
I think it's very likely most european countries are singing from the same hymn sheet and most intelligence services have similar guidelines based on deep metric based research they've got going on.
Anyone got a link to that clip of the Azov Nazis making fun of libs for saying there's no Nazis in Ukraine?
It appears that some warmongers in the US are evaluating the posibility to give Ukraine a bunch of A-10s. Of course, at this stage, and in order to look "good" in front of the "free world", these people will just say they're evaluating giving the ukrainians three Ohio-class nuclear submarines, one Nimitz-class supercarrier, reactivate one of the Iowa-class battleship and give it to Ukraine along with a bunch of other wunderwaffe-like weapon systems that will surely, this time surely! give Ukraine the final victory (third reich style).
What they'll probably get are some old Slovak MiG-29s that wont stem the tide. A-10s are a big no-no, first because the US doesn't have a replacement for it yet, second because it's actually quite shitty when compared to other strike aircraft, like seriously the A-10 is pure marketing, a favorite of western reddittors. It did meh in Iraq against modest defenses, and it is expected to be useful against a country that has some of the best anti-aircraft weapon systems in the world? What is it going to do, an attack run on a bunch of T-90Ms protected by SAM systems with it's overhyped 30 mm BRRRRRRRRRT minigun?
A-10 has more fame than usefulness, it's entire combat record is just blowing up static, dug-in tanks in the middle of the desert that never had proper SAM support, and then shooting a few 30 mm rounds and bombs into the Taliban whose entire air defense network were AK-74s and yelling at the aircraft above them. The A-10 wont work in a region where you DON'T control the airspace, there's an insane overabundance of radars, S-300s, S-400s, Pantsir, Tunguskas and even Shilkas for fuck's sake, let alone the number of MANPADs around the place. Technically it can be compared with the Frogfoot, but it's more of the same, the Su-25 is flying combat missions without much threat from the ground...
But here we go, the West showing no clear sign of wanting this absolute madness to stop. Russia will press on, Ukraine will stick with it's NATO buddies who feed them weapons in exchange for bleeding their own people at the front lines and said NATO buddies are making a lot of money out of this. Tell me who the fuck in the world is trying to mediate in this conflict? Who's asking for both sides to sit in a fucking table and sort it all out diplomatically? Nobody, fucking nobody. It's insanity.
The western sanctions is wrecking havoc on Europe. At some point the combination of a national bourgeoisie that's bleeding money and a freezing, unemployed and angry populace is going to make European leaders look for an off-ramp to re-establish commercial relations with Russia, even though it will mean disobeying orders from Washington.
What could such an off-ramp look like?
Asking for Nordstream 2 to be re opened.
If Germany is really willing to basically become Italy or Greece to appease America than maybe there is no off ramp. Just poverty
What's incredible in all of this is how - for decades now - we've been told that the German economy is becoming the fulcrum around which the rest of Europe will spin. Italy and Greece only are what they are because of the trade imbalance doing to the periphery what NAFTA / Trans Pacific Trade did to the American Midwest.
To think that the industrial core could be laid low practically overnight. What even is the point of NATO if it obliterates your domestic economic interests like this?
It's horrible what American business elite did to the Midwest. But at the very least it was to pump up Americans elites pockets
German elite seem to be like yeah. Rape the whole countries manufacturing sector. We don't need anything. Just a good hand shake and a pint.
NATO never thought it would actually need to be used in a defensive war, that is the main takeaway.
All of the military strength in the world is meaningless if you will not use it offensively against the power which has your entire economic engine gripped by the balls. Russia being able to shut down the economic centerpiece of Europe without even attacking is such an incredibly understated chess-like play.
Intentional or not, Russia forcing NATO nations to either deeply commit to Ukraine’s lost cause, or abandon Ukraine entirely, has been an incredible revelation. In a conventional war of NATO vs Russia alone, Russia loses easily and nobody doubts this. Russia forcing NATO to only be able to wage an economic war puts Russia on a much more even playing field (if not at an outright advantage) because of Europe’s need for Russia to keep the European economy afloat. NATO needed this conflict to be a conventional war against Russia to win any kind of victory that keeps Russia weak/down.
What really boggles my mind is how unprepared the EU is for this. For years and years a horde of Atlanticist ghouls has been going on about how evil dictator Putin was going to use "the energy weapon" but now when you can argue that he is actually doing it, the euros seems to be caught by surprise by the fact that a hydrocarbon-based economy is in fact in deep shit if you piss off the people who supply the hydrocarbons.
No serious attempts seems to have been made to diversity energy sources or to phase out fossils in favour of renewables. They even closed down lots of nuclear plants.
It even seems like they never even considered the possibility of blowback when they sanctioned Russia. Are they high on westoid exceptionalism, are they insane or are they part of a sinister conspiracy to destroy Europe.
NATO never thought it would actually need to be used in a defensive war, that is the main takeaway.
NATO's idea of defense was to stand up and reinforce guerrilla insurgencies behind enemy lines. That's been the strategy since at least Hungary in '56. Everything from the Contras in Nicaragua to the Taliban opposition to Russia in Afghanistan have been proxy wars sponsored by NATO states.
Russia being able to shut down the economic centerpiece of Europe without even attacking is such an incredibly understated chess-like play.
Well, Putin being able to maintain a firm grip on domestic leadership in a country awash in western money, foreign assets, and corrupted local business interests is the real play. The US balkinization of the USSR never truly cracked the Russian core. And by maintaining a sold hold on the internal political sphere, Putin held together the unified Russian economy to leverage it as a kind of national collectivist bargaining chit in world affairs.
Everything today is running downstream of that. Germany can't just buy O&G from The People's Republic of East Siberia while blockading St. Petersburgland.
Intentional or not, Russia forcing NATO nations to either deeply commit to Ukraine’s lost cause, or abandon Ukraine entirely, has been an incredible revelation.
Its been a bloody, horrific nightmare of brutality and death. The war is an absolute failure of international relations and a betrayal of the Globalist vision neoliberalism promised. NATO states could have very easily looked at the playing field, realized they were in a losing position, and backed off long before a shot was fired. They were just so used to bluffing and winning that they continued to push on Zelensky with the promise Russia would never pull the trigger.
Its definitely a revelation, but the cost of losing has been abhorrent. They gambled with the lives of an entire nation and now millions of Ukrainians are paying for it.
What’s incredible in all of this is how - for decades now - we’ve been told that the German economy is becoming the fulcrum around which the rest of Europe will spin. Italy and Greece only are what they are because of the trade imbalance doing to the periphery what NAFTA / Trans Pacific Trade did to the American Midwest.
Becoming? Germany and France are already the economic and productive center and you are right the poorer EU countries are deliberately forced to run their economies in a certain way in order to provide those two with a qualified and educated workforce along with cheaper resources and services. Perhaps it doesn't seem like we reached that point because it would be incredibly awkward for the neoliberal media to acknowledge straight up "ah yes the EU is actualy merely a failed project for industrialization and dominance around Germany with France just barely tagging along, always has been".
Also being part of NATO is just about having a membership card of the democracy club. There was never any real material benefit to it, Russia was never going to invade, certainly not after the 90s shock therapy anyway.
Germany and France are already the economic and productive center
Ostensibly, until Russia pulls the plug on the cheap energy. Now its looking like the shambling remains of the Soviet state still have a bit of life in them. Moscow is proving itself the de facto center weight of the continent.
Also being part of NATO is just about having a membership card of the democracy club.
Much more than that. Just ask Libya or Syria. Look at Yugoslavia.
It is firstly and foremost a promise that you won't be the target of a vicious nightmarish conquest by other western powers (give or take a Turkey)
But it is, secondly, an implied threat that keeps all the other colonies in line. You're on Team NATO, so you can hit them but they can't hit you back.
You are absolutely right about NATO, but the question was more about "benefits" and you are describing a mafia/protection racket, NATO membership is a mafia pinky ring. It doesn't bring any benefits other than you just get to avoid being punched in the face every other day.
Not getting punched in the face is a BFD. Compare pretty much any country pre-war to post-war, and the longer they avoid getting bombed the better they perform. Even the most abused members of the EU outperform Latin American states brutalized by the drug war.
But NATO was also supposed to be the knife at the neck of Russia, extorting it for cheap raw materials. Being a NATO member was also supposed to mean you got first crack at the spoils.
the EU is actualy merely a failed project for industrialization and dominance around Germany
I have heard historians speculate, that had Germany won WWII, Europe would more or less look the like EU today. With Germany at the center of power and the rest of Europe in an economically subservient position.
I'm not sure I totally buy it, but I think there's definitely some truth to it.
If Germany won that means USSR lost, there was never a post WW2 communist bloc and EU may have been United under Nazi rule (which may have eventually liberalized somewhat a a la Spain post Franco) but like 40 years ahead of the current time line so I think it would all look a lot different regardless.
It’s going to be right populism/nationalism/isolationism for the most part, except in areas that neo-conservatives currently control which might go squishy left (UK for example, might head in the direction of an isolationist anti-NATO social democrat)
UK for example, might head in the direction of an isolationist anti-NATO social democrat
No chance
Apparently the Ukrainian fascist vigilante kill-list website Mirotvorets has put a 13 year old girl from Lugansk on there, i'm sure Western media will be appropriately outraged by this development
https://t.me/node_of_time_en/494
Honestly, my boss is a real one for giving us all a raise to account for inflation
Too bad that means jackshit when you live in a country that has no control over parasitic landlords
After years of planning against Russian Winters, they left themselves completely vulnerable to the Russian Summer
Russia has suffered the climate for well over a century now. Their best efforts at combating human suffering were destroyed by those who benefited from kind climates. Those undeserved beneficiaries of Gaia destroyed her and now the vanquished would-be savior is ascending as a result of the ruin they created.
Maybe karma is real
Lmao theres an article in the papers today about how Scandinavian Airlines has a "strike culture" because too many strikes have resolved in favor of the workers, and this is very expensive for the owners.
I think the latest one, which they just resolved, has costed the airline about a billion DKK in lost revenue according to the spokesperson they had crying on TV. It's actually insane how much money this airline generates and how badly they fuck it up every 3-5 years.
IMO basically every airline could be state-owned, or maybe a large cooperative. it makes no fucking sense to run airlines for profit and it hasn't for years, the industry as a whole massively subsidized and regulated already. SAS and also Norwegian Air have been losing money for years to the point where Sweden and Norway both cut them off from more capital since 2022 for SAS and 2020 for Norwegian.
Ministry of Defense of Ukraine says that Russia must abandon Crimea, "if it wants to continue to exist as a state."
😂
Interrupting my posting hiatus just cause I saw this quote in the newspaper and wanted to laugh at it
I wonder if the Ukrainian politicians are really that delusional or if they're just saying random words for the media
My old cat who got cancelled earlier this year for being a Russian blue is deteriorating. I am very sad.
Summary
News
EU tankers, particularly Greek ones, are racing to transport as much Russian oil as possible for those juicy profits before the sanctions kick in, sometimes going as far as Siberia. The EU's crop yield is projected to fall, which will presumably cause von der Leyen to start denouncing Mother Nature for weaponizing food exports. Putin is going to go meet and make friends with Erdogan in Turkey and Raisi in Iran. An economic adviser to Putin says that the Russian economy will be firmly back on the tracks towards positive developments by the end of this year. The UK's military chief says that people speculating that Putin has turbocancer because his leg twitched once is copium, and that he probably won't be assassinated. Lavrov accuses France and Germany of killing both Minsk agreements (which, oddly, neither of which are mentioned much in western media when they describe the escalation up to February 24th). The UK labor shortages may cost their economy $35 billion per year. It's really fucking hot in the UK, as I am experiencing firsthand, with the heatwaves easily set to break records. France is also really fucking hot, and also Europe is on fire. Germany says that this conflict could speed up their green energy transition, like a procrastinator writing their essay the day before the due date in a panic-fueled haze, as I'm sure we all know about. Draghi escapes Italy to go hang out in Algeria for, uh, gas talks - yeah, that's it.
Boeing cuts its long term industry forecast after excluding sales from Russia and Central Asia. China is moving away from skyscrapers because they're not good, and instead wants more low-rise buildings. It's also really fucking hot in China. The DPRK says that their coronavirus outbreak is almost over, claiming that over 99% of its 4.77 million fever patients since late April have fully recovered, proving the effectiveness of Juche magic.
Imran Khan has called again for an early national election after his party took the majority of positions in Punjab, the most populous province in Pakistan. Iran's exports to the EU are up 39% in 5 months, year on year. Iran says that it could build a nuclear bomb if it wanted to, saying that it's uranium is at 60% enrichment and that they could get to 90% easily. Oil prices have risen above $100 per barrel as Biden failed to get anything from Saudi Arabia.
Morocco's oases are drying up.
Bernie says that Biden shouldn't be talking to autocracies like Saudi Arabia, which is a whataboutism or something, idk. Yellen wants the US to end dependence on China for rare earth metals, solar panels, and other goods - which sucks for them, I guess.
Panama is now past week two of their national strike, and is keeping on going. Venezuelan top secret agents want to establish a cyber intelligence operations base in Argentina, which sounds cool as fuck but the WSJ thinks that's bad or something.
Conflict and Climate
A Pentagon supplier says that the West can't sustain a prolonged conflict in Ukraine or elsewhere, which is probably just them grifting for more money from the government but also, I think, has a kernel of truth if we're talking about most countries that the US would want to invade, given the track record of US gear so far in Ukraine. Zelensky fires some of his admin staff, citing treason - hopefully he's overthrown soon and this war can end. Italy may soon be unable to arm Ukraine due to the political instability with Draghi and so on.
Dipshittery, Good Takes, Hope, and Extra
Business Insider says that Russia has now killed any dream that Moscow could become an international finance hub (which I think strongly depends on your definition of "international", which I think differs from BI's). WSJ and Fortune release largely the same article, arguing that, sure, the West is facing some consequences from the sanctions and some people may freeze and jobs may be loss en masse as industries collapse, but Russia doesn't have Western brands anymore, so really, they're doing a lot worse here. An ex-NATO commander says that Russia's war in Ukraine will likely become a frozen conflict in 4-6 months due to strong Ukrainian resistance, saying that Russia has gained "a little bit of territory over what he started the conflict with", referring to an occupied area nearly half the size of Germany. John Bolton steals a bit from us, saying that the foreign coups he helped plan were necessary to 'protect America's best interests'. Forbes argues that the US simply can't do anything to curb the world's CO2 emissions, which I go on a multi-paragraph rant about.
An author for Popular Resistance, who previously described how the UK played a role in the coup that ousted Morales, interviews Evo. Tony Blair says that the West's dominance is ending and China is rising (which is a good take, but he's still going to prison when the revolution comes). Argentina and Mexico are increasing commercial ties with Cuba, while Caribbean states call for the lifting of sanctions against Venezuela.
There's cute photos of wild elephants on the Chinese-Laos border.
