The first American civil war literally happened under capitalism. Sometimes contradictions in the system need to play themselves out and armed struggle is one of the avenues for that.
Some idiots starting guerilla warfare in the current climate of the US would be extremely destructive. Also they'd be eliminated in, like, less than a month.
Also what you are saying could also be said for any guerilla war ever. Including some rando who barricades himself at his own house which he declares an autonomous zone while shooting at cops from the balcony, or some larpers pissing off to some swamp and surviving on berries. These are the main ways "guerilla warfare" could come about in the US right now. Dude, trust me, this shit has happened again many times in Europe. There are many groups here who think they are guerrillas (or used to before they were caught) and they never achieved shit, many of them in countries much further from a police state than the US is, and with the left having far more legitimacy. I wish American leftists stopped being so impatient and instead focused on not creeping the fuck out of potential allies with guerilla larping and edginess.
I'm not saying guerilla war is good for anyone, and I'm not saying the left should be seriously considering it. What I'm saying is that literally every significant guerilla war has started with someone saying "this will be taken care of in a month."
There are many groups here who think they are guerrillas (or used to before they were caught) and they never achieved shit, many of them in countries much further from a police state than the US is, and with the left having far more legitimacy.
You're right, but it's silly to take this to the extreme of "guerilla war can't work." It's ahistorical.
I think what you are not considering is the legions of chuds who have been wanking to Glenn Beck for a decade and have rifles and go bags all set up. The right has the full backing of the most extensive military on earth and a few hundred thousand “patriots” who will literally fight to the death to protect the status quo. We are outnumbered, outgunned, and cannot participate in asymmetrical warfare, because we are outnumbered there too. It’s not like Vietnam where a formal army is fighting guerillas 1000 miles away. It’s a formal army, guerillas, an elaborate spying network, the CIA, and a police state against 10,000 of us with guns we bought at the local sporting goods place. It is absolutely a pipe dream. Decades of propaganda have convinced generations of Americans that leftists are the second coming of the Nazis and they oppose us as hard as we do fascists.
I’m not saying guerilla war is good for anyone, and I’m not saying the left should be seriously considering it. What I’m saying is that literally every significant guerilla war has started with someone saying “this will be taken care of in a month.”
And this part:
a few hundred thousand “patriots” who will literally fight to the death to protect the status quo
Is an enormous exaggeration, even if there's a grain of truth. You're confusing the willingness to harm others (mostly indirectly) with a willingness to die for something. It's really easy to find people willing to pick on someone who won't fight back; it's a lot harder when there's even the possibility of significant resistance.
I didn't say "guerilla war can't work". I said no kind of guerilla work that could work is anywhere close to the reality of the US today, and that I wish American leftists focused on more practical things and stopped fantasising about stuff only ends up creeping people out.
Why do you think you HAVE to talk about war? Is a civil war happening? Is a civil war going to happen any time soon? Maybe you think so, in which case you have a very poor analysis of the situation. But if you think there won't be anything like that, then why do you feel like you ABSOLUTELY MUST talk about it? War doesn't just upset the libs, it upsets everyone who understands what war is.
What makes you think that point is anywhere close to present? Like, if you want to make the discussion about what a leftist insurgency in the US would look like, you're free to do so in a literary context, maybe if we had some sort of fiction or world building board or something like that. But it is so far removed from present reality that it's genuinely counterproductive and impractical to talk about it.
If that happens, it won't be enough for leftists to have, like, a gun and 3 magazines each that they bought 30 years ago. If that happens, there would need to be well organised circuits to resupply the guerrillas, there would need to be broad alliances, there would need to be serious organization. The conditions under which that will happen are very hard to foresee.
That kind of "prep work" kind of reminds me of doomsday preppers. Like, yeah, OK, who knows, maybe you will live to go through it. But there's more practical things to do now, and you can't foresee the circumstances under which something might happen. If you need a gun to protect yourself today, buy a gun. But setting out plans for what you'd do in an imaginary scenario of an insurgency that you really can't foresee is unproductive, and not just because it is idle speculation at this point, and not just because it creeps people out. It also gives people here the false impression that we're definitely one step before the revolution or something like that, and it makes them divert their attention to the wrong things, and go through manic cycles of "the revolution is here!" and "oh fuck nothing ever happens". I remember when George Floyd started and there were genuinely people here who thought it would turn into an insurgency or revolution or whatever, and shouted you down if you told them that, well, it's super important and you should take advantage of it as much as possible and figure out how to make the gains last, but, you know, it's not really a revolution. And of course they fell into hopelessness after it didn't become what they thought it would. Now it appears like the doomer posting has been dialled back because something is happening again, but it will inevitably start again when this stops.
If you think a civil war is imminent, you get as armed as possible and see what the best way to organize is with the allies you already have. At that point the situation you are dealing with is something concrete. But this is not how you prepare when a civil war is not imminent. Speculation about civil wars when nothing like that can be foreseen leads to people getting confused and making wrong judgements. Leftist politics shouldn't be driven by unfounded speculation but focused on making concrete, long term gains, dealing with concrete situations. It's the same reason why discussions around, say, how to implement socialism are useless.
The first American civil war literally happened under capitalism. Sometimes contradictions in the system need to play themselves out and armed struggle is one of the avenues for that.
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In short, The Troubles.
Yup, with some long term possibility of balkanisation.
mixed with Years of Lead. As always up the ra
It wouldn’t even be that simple. It would be fifty different factions and the failing state fighting guerilla war
Some idiots starting guerilla warfare in the current climate of the US would be extremely destructive. Also they'd be eliminated in, like, less than a month.
I mean this has been said about literally every guerilla war ever.
No.
Also what you are saying could also be said for any guerilla war ever. Including some rando who barricades himself at his own house which he declares an autonomous zone while shooting at cops from the balcony, or some larpers pissing off to some swamp and surviving on berries. These are the main ways "guerilla warfare" could come about in the US right now. Dude, trust me, this shit has happened again many times in Europe. There are many groups here who think they are guerrillas (or used to before they were caught) and they never achieved shit, many of them in countries much further from a police state than the US is, and with the left having far more legitimacy. I wish American leftists stopped being so impatient and instead focused on not creeping the fuck out of potential allies with guerilla larping and edginess.
I'm not saying guerilla war is good for anyone, and I'm not saying the left should be seriously considering it. What I'm saying is that literally every significant guerilla war has started with someone saying "this will be taken care of in a month."
You're right, but it's silly to take this to the extreme of "guerilla war can't work." It's ahistorical.
I think what you are not considering is the legions of chuds who have been wanking to Glenn Beck for a decade and have rifles and go bags all set up. The right has the full backing of the most extensive military on earth and a few hundred thousand “patriots” who will literally fight to the death to protect the status quo. We are outnumbered, outgunned, and cannot participate in asymmetrical warfare, because we are outnumbered there too. It’s not like Vietnam where a formal army is fighting guerillas 1000 miles away. It’s a formal army, guerillas, an elaborate spying network, the CIA, and a police state against 10,000 of us with guns we bought at the local sporting goods place. It is absolutely a pipe dream. Decades of propaganda have convinced generations of Americans that leftists are the second coming of the Nazis and they oppose us as hard as we do fascists.
And this part:
Is an enormous exaggeration, even if there's a grain of truth. You're confusing the willingness to harm others (mostly indirectly) with a willingness to die for something. It's really easy to find people willing to pick on someone who won't fight back; it's a lot harder when there's even the possibility of significant resistance.
I didn't say "guerilla war can't work". I said no kind of guerilla work that could work is anywhere close to the reality of the US today, and that I wish American leftists focused on more practical things and stopped fantasising about stuff only ends up creeping people out.
"Guys, stop talking about war - it upsets the libs."
"The slavers and wealthy northern industrialists should've just voted their way to solving their irreconcilable contradictions of capital"
-Libs
Oh I see, it's epic brain time. Yes that's exactly what I said, good job.
Why do you think you HAVE to talk about war? Is a civil war happening? Is a civil war going to happen any time soon? Maybe you think so, in which case you have a very poor analysis of the situation. But if you think there won't be anything like that, then why do you feel like you ABSOLUTELY MUST talk about it? War doesn't just upset the libs, it upsets everyone who understands what war is.
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What?
Chapo Chat is not dirtbag leftist, it's milquetoast centrist at best.
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Please refer to my reply to the other guy.
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What makes you think that point is anywhere close to present? Like, if you want to make the discussion about what a leftist insurgency in the US would look like, you're free to do so in a literary context, maybe if we had some sort of fiction or world building board or something like that. But it is so far removed from present reality that it's genuinely counterproductive and impractical to talk about it.
deleted by creator
If that happens, it won't be enough for leftists to have, like, a gun and 3 magazines each that they bought 30 years ago. If that happens, there would need to be well organised circuits to resupply the guerrillas, there would need to be broad alliances, there would need to be serious organization. The conditions under which that will happen are very hard to foresee.
That kind of "prep work" kind of reminds me of doomsday preppers. Like, yeah, OK, who knows, maybe you will live to go through it. But there's more practical things to do now, and you can't foresee the circumstances under which something might happen. If you need a gun to protect yourself today, buy a gun. But setting out plans for what you'd do in an imaginary scenario of an insurgency that you really can't foresee is unproductive, and not just because it is idle speculation at this point, and not just because it creeps people out. It also gives people here the false impression that we're definitely one step before the revolution or something like that, and it makes them divert their attention to the wrong things, and go through manic cycles of "the revolution is here!" and "oh fuck nothing ever happens". I remember when George Floyd started and there were genuinely people here who thought it would turn into an insurgency or revolution or whatever, and shouted you down if you told them that, well, it's super important and you should take advantage of it as much as possible and figure out how to make the gains last, but, you know, it's not really a revolution. And of course they fell into hopelessness after it didn't become what they thought it would. Now it appears like the doomer posting has been dialled back because something is happening again, but it will inevitably start again when this stops.
If you think a civil war is imminent, you get as armed as possible and see what the best way to organize is with the allies you already have. At that point the situation you are dealing with is something concrete. But this is not how you prepare when a civil war is not imminent. Speculation about civil wars when nothing like that can be foreseen leads to people getting confused and making wrong judgements. Leftist politics shouldn't be driven by unfounded speculation but focused on making concrete, long term gains, dealing with concrete situations. It's the same reason why discussions around, say, how to implement socialism are useless.