My position for a while was that if Biden runs away with this, whatever shit Trump tries to pull still won't be enough. His best shot was always getting it to a place he can work around the margins using voter supression and blatant cheating. I just thought the trajectory was leading to a Biden blowout.
I don't think that anymore. I can absolutely see this one being >= 5 points come election day. I think the overall Dem aesthetic will start to wear thin on people. I really have no idea how the debates are going to go, but I see them swinging in Trump's favor.
If that's the case, you gotta beat the house on election day, and Trump is the house and you know what he's been doing.
I don't know, just sharing my thoughts. Good to be back with you homies.
This makes me think that the Democrats' strategy is to just assume that they will win, and carry on under that impression. It's only when they REALLY fuck up, that they stop and consider, oh, right, we're supposed to try to appeal to voters. We don't need the left, cuz we're gonna win! We don't need to call the GOP's blatant corruption out, cuz we're gonna win! Why rock the boat? We're gonna win!
The thing is, they are calling out the blatant corruption. Trump is sabotaging the USPS as a voter supression tactic. Dems are up in arms about it. It's just... what the fuck are they gonna do? They have no way in engaging in resistance outside of screaming #VOTE. Then if he wins, they're just going to call for the mods who will never come.
When Harris and Biden did their presser last week, NPR asked a Dem strategist if they were worried about Harris alienating the left-wing of the party. I shit you not his actual response: "Our rule of thumb for elections is that if we're alienating the left-wing of the party, we're doing something right."
Every day I consider if I should bother voting Biden, and every day Democrats explicitly tell me not to.
“Our rule of thumb for elections is that if we’re alienating the left-wing of the party, we’re doing something right.”
what the fuck. please let me die
I literally cannot get this video out of my head:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FqRNnIMDkUY&list=FLHaiWz9zB4eNNu2_MmgXC5A
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3698/Who-will-win-the-2020-US-presidential-election
I've had those feelings recently too, mostly because of the DNC. I mean, I'm sure the RNC will be an absolute freak show too. Part of me feels like the kind of voter who can be swayed by like a convention isn't actually watching conventions.
This election is very different in terms of people's threshold for political aesthetics. Trump had an advantage on Hillary because he was different. He was a break from the political norm. I think that was refreshing to a bunch of dipshits. But now he's the norm and I think people are more tired of that aesthetic than whatever milquetoste garbage the Dems are pushing.
I don't know. It still blows my mind that anyone could not have their mind made up by now. If anyone could fuck this up it's the Dems but I almost feel like the ball isn't even in their court. People will be voting against Trump, not for Biden. Whatever the Dems do almost feels like it shouldn't matter at this point.
There are very few "undecided" voters, turnout is always much more important, especially this time. Trump is firing up the nutjobs and relying on his base, while Biden is hiding in his bunker and relying on widespread soft support. I wonder if Trump might actually pull this off.
He does have the "not afraid of covid and excited to prove it by going out to vote" demographic on his side ..
Part of me feels like the kind of voter who can be swayed by like a convention isn’t actually watching conventions.
You don't have to watch it to hear about it, or to see weird clips from it.
The GOP hasn't even begun to sacrifice its own people yet.
Trump could basically flip his entire platform in October to support Trumpcare for All (most of Medicare is already run by the private insurance companies); Bringing Home Troops (and into Portland); and a "Green" New Deal (everyone gets $100/week forever unless you're a criminal or something).
His base would be too confused to do anything but vote for team Red, and suddenly he's gunning for that "lesser evil" title that the libs have been spending 4 months turning into something palatable to the mouth.
“Green” New Deal (everyone gets $100/week forever unless you’re a criminal or something).
This is mind-numbing so it's probably gonna happen, and people will still say it goes too far.
None of those things reform capitalism.
Trumpcare can be entirely sold off to the health insurers. Trumpbux are just Amazon Fodder -- "you can have $100/week or $120 Amazon Gift Card".
Legalizing marijuana they're just stalling as long as possible waiting for the industry to get set up for that they can read the room I think. There are now "cooking with weed" Netflix reality shows. Plus the prison industry is going to be flush with Antifa.
By 2025 there will be exactly two employees that make up 90% of the country:
"Amazon Family" members, who basically travel and are housed in tight dorms at the Amazon Warehouses, like a shitty Google campus. They are given everything they need and are able to bring their family (though additional family members will be at a cost). They are paid in Amazon Credit.
and
"Amazon Free" members, who are all gig workers summoned by their smart phones to perform some type of task for someone else. They have no benefits but can choose their own schedule or something. They are paid in Amazon Credit.
It doesn't seem like he will flip his platform though. He has had the opportunity for months to really be an economic populist in the sense of making Trumpbux a permanent thing, but can't seem to be bothered.
I would personally bet on Trump. We need like a betting pool or something here.
Plus Trump's polling tanked after each of the debates against Clinton, Biden has a 40+ year history of gaffes and never looked impressive in a debate this primary season, and the staff around both has to be concerned about either speaking coherently for ~2 hours.
Any debate between the two will be a competition of who can last the longest without saying the N word
I've seen a few libs I know go from, biden is going to win last week. To wtf was that convention John kaisach.... We are fucked.
I think trump will most likely win
I'm on the opposite side of this. Obviously this is all disregarding any sort of voter suppression, USPS fuckery or other forms of cheating Trump might use but before COVID-19 and everything my bet was that Trump would wipe the floor with Biden. Now? I'm not so sure. This pandemic and the economic fallout has hit people hard. Are the Dems really gonna do anything substantial about that? Of course not, but even still it might actually motivate people to come out and vote to get rid of Trump.
We always talk about how being this much in tune with politics poisons your brain but the vast majority of the electorate undeniably isn't concerned with politics at that level and for those people I imagine Biden's speech genuinely moving them is enough of a reason to support him.
I mean honestly, this is 100% pure superficial lib shit but that's literally the one and only thing about Biden that I can connect with him on: He actually seems like a real human being who has experienced loss and grief in a relatable way. Not even the most hardcore MAGA chuds would say that about Trump. I saw the video by the 13 y/o kid with the stutter this morning and actually teared up but I should note I'm a massive pussy in that regard. When Bernie stepped out in Brooklyn to Back in Black I immediately started crying. Again, speeches like that are 100% superficial and have nothing to do with how he'll spend his 4 or 8 years in office but like I said the majority of people don't approach politics like that.
i like to pretend to be a materialist, but the truth is that i believe that the number one law of the universe is that pride cometh before a fall
so really this shit could go either way
I'm totally 50/50 on predicting the outcome, thats why I dont hate Nate Bronze for doing predictions on the election because it gives me a lens to view the reality through. At this point its just convincing libs that they dont have to vote for a rapist for president if the state electorally is going to slide heavy towards Biden.
