:amerikkka-clap: :amerikkka:
Anyone telling you they won't actually do it is fooling themselves.
The right-wing legal movement has worked for nearly half a century on this. This is their Super Bowl, their Olympic gold medal, whatever. They thought they had it in the '90s with Planned Parenthood v. Casey and an 8-1 Supreme Court and got burned. Since then, they've worked feverishly to make sure any high-ranking Republican judge is an anti-abortion zealot. It's a well-oiled death machine.
I'm generally pretty bloomer about things but y'all - they're gonna fuckin do it.
....I just somehow believe that the Dems won't let them. Like... this is the one issue that'll get all the libs in the streets.
I hope - but extremely doubt - you're right.
Plenty of things got libs in the streets throughout Trump's presidency, then faded back to being background noise. I'd love for this to be different, I don't believe it will.
I'm feeling doomer about this, because overturning Roe v Wade won't immediately make abortion illegal, it will just open the door for states to do it. So you'll have the "frog in hot water" effect going on where every couple of months different red state will be banning it, but because most libs' access to abortion won't change they won't be able to get riled up about it.
It will immediately make abortion illegal in 20 or 25 states. There are 8 states with pre-Roe abortion bans and at least 12 with "trigger laws" that ban abortion the second Roe is overturned.
“trigger laws” that ban abortion the second Roe is overturned.
...oh. TIL.
No abortion is the one thing that affects rich libs as much as poor people. It is the one thing that Dems have that they can proudly hold above their heads.
Either they will actually fight for it. Or their lack of spine will cause a lot of people to finally call it quits with the Dems. No amount of “boss babe” energy would save Pelosi from failing to stop this.
huh? rich people can just go to a different jurisdiction to get the abortion. they won't be affected at all.
Hyper rich yeah but there’s already laws in place to stop middle class folks from doing that in multiple states. I’m expecting much more when the reversal goes through. .
hmm. i'm a dummy, but i'll be curious how, ya know, those restrictions contemplate/survive federalism questions.
Same way the other fucking laws have. Judges say it’s fine gets deferred to Supreme Court who then says it’s fine becaaue morals and shit.
i think that's a reach. the Court evidently doesn't have the appetite to continue to engage in abortion-lochnerism, but i imagine they will be loathe to trample on what i imagine are traditional notions of comity and state sovereignty.
like, its one thing for the Court to say that the substantive issue is not contemplated by the constitution (and thus, leaving abortion access to the federal or state legislatures); it would be quite another to affirmatively allow some states to effectively override the laws of other states.
Do you think republican-governors'-daughters don't get abortions?
Rich people will just go to now-even-more-expensive private clinics were they can get an abortion for a hefty sum of money without any fucking lunatic at the door harassing them.
Half of the EU doesn't even have full abortion rights, it's really only a matter of time before Roe gets overturned.
Plus, if Roe gets overturned Dems have an easy way to grift more money from coastal rich libs by running "legalize abortion" campaigns in places like Texas.
The Texas restrictions are very new. The protections of Roe v Wade are much stronger (while they still exist lol) technically than what people have in Europe. Roe theoretically guarantees up to "viability" (22-23 weeks) and until the Bush years,you could even do partial birth abortions.
Most countries in Europe, abortion only unrestricted up to the first trimester. Even countries like Denmark and Austria require doctor's approval which is something that only the more conservative states in the US have (mandatory ultrasounds or requiring appointments), and those restrictions are fairly new in the US (30 years ago you never had to see a doctor before your abortion anywhere in the US, until the Supreme Court started chipping away at Roe). Germany and Belgium have longer waiting periods than some of the reddest US states.
Edit: Did some digging on Germany's abortion laws, and what they have on the books, right now, is technically a little stricter than the Mississippi ban that's being argued right now.
Doctors are also free to refuse abortions which means in some rural conservative areas, it's just like the US where technically abortion is legal but women have to drive hours to get one. For instance in some regions of Italy, over 90% of OBs refuse to perform abortions, and these are mostly rural, poorer regions just like in the US.
"We need to get back Roe vs. Wade!" will be an even better motivator to get the democrat base to :vote: and donate than "There's a damn Cheeto in the White House!" ever was. These people love losing and are experts at milking their losses.
why hasn't there been someone like "yo, these guys lost us RvW, why even continue to support them?"
"You have to support the democrats! Otherwise you support orange Cheeto Drumpf who will overturn women's suffrage unless you :vote: and donate!"
It's perfect fucking timing for the Democrats, because it buys them an entire election cycle of promising absolutely nothing except "you gotta :vote: for us otherwise we'll never reinstate Roe v. Wade 🥺 "
Nah, actually the perfect time to do it is under a Dem presidency. They'll all look to Biden for guidance and he will characteristically offer none and so they'll do nothing.
If this does go through, would the dems have any power to stop it until they get more seats on the SC?
This has been in the court pipeline for months. If they were going to do anything, they would have.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the machine thinks that restricting or removing reproductive rights will help address the falling birth rates caused by economically destroying multiple generations of its workforce.
It’s not going to fix that and they’re going to be very upset about it. Expect lots of liberal think pieces with titles like “even with abortion outlawed, birth rates continue to decline, why are millennials destroying social security?”
what am I going to snack on if the aborted fetus supply chain is threatened?!
jokes aside,, all I can hope is that this radicalizes the fuck out a bunch of people and they break out of liberalism
Honestly it feels like if you haven't seen the writing on the wall by now nothing is going to shake you out of it. Liberals will keep clinging to institutions and laws while the rug gets pulled out from under them. Sputtering and hoping to just vote their way out of this one.
I take a different approach:
Yes, more and more people are failed by capitalism. But porky keeps an in-group of influencers, propagandists and pigs as a force multiplier for their ideology. As once-high paid liberals find their jobs going away, porky just increases the power / resources of the in-group along with creating strategies to bind the poor to the wealthy.
Therefore the attenuation of the “middle class” is priced into the system, so to speak.
porky just increases the power / resources of the in-group along with creating strategies to bind the poor to the wealthy.
Late Antiquity mood
Class consciousness starts with the part of the working class being exploited the most and grows up from there. More and more comfortable “middle class” workers are beginning to see the cracks in their standards of living.
The only radicalization that happens in this country is towards the right.
I dunno my whole friend group is now some flavor of radical leftist, and we have all shifted in the past 5 years.
Says the person on a website full of leftists radicalized in Amerika lol
all I can hope is that this radicalizes the fuck out a bunch of people and they break out of liberalism
Sadly - that won't happen. Instead libs will simply tell everybody to vote harder and vote blue... you know the thing. In fact - some democrats will campaign on issues like abortion. I guess the spin will be something like "You better vote for us (and donate to us) while you still can and we are still a democracy. We'll do something... eventually."
You'll see libs doubling down and getting more committed to their ideology. But that's because their numbers are shrinking. It's not the fence-sitters that stick through year after year of failure, it's the true believers.
Wrong, it will deradicalize people because "I don't like them either but we must :vote: to make abortion legal in all 50 States!"
Do be wondering if we're getting into the home stretch of the cool zone?
Nope! Americans will suffer any level of oppression and all they will do is gripe and blame the poor, is my prediction.
just blame Trump and :vote: - that's the start and end of liberal action right there
Definitely feels like shit is accelerating toward that point. Two car attacks and two mass shootings in the last week and only one of them really got media attention. At this point if the body count is in the single digits its going unnoticed, or people are just too numb to care.
At this point there could be sporadic skirmishes between the government and any number of factions and people would probably just shrug and keep on going, this is how it happens, one day you stop flinching at mortar attacks or random gunfire and nobody ever once really announces The Collapse, it just sets in.
It's clear that the US has a terminal illness and all we can do now is harm reduction.
How it went with the soviet union right? It just suddenly fell apart, like there was no big event.
the fall of the Soviet Union took everyone by surprise, even the CIA. America literally didn't believe it at first. The election fraud came later when Russia was independent. Like every one knew there were troubles, and there was the conservative coup, but that failed so people guessed the country might be okay and that the worse was over. We'd get some market reforms and end up looking somewhat like China. Gorbachev and Yeltsin will fight but now that the "old guard" just lost all their power surely the path for reform is clear and bright?
then Yeltsin and his gang started declaring independence, in 8 days Gorbachev went from ruling 15 nations to ruling nothing. Nobody wanted this except radical liberals like Yeltsin who just wanted to be in charge and be corrupt. But like a bundle of string, as soon as the cord snapped everything unraveled. Gorbachev technically still was president of the rump USSR for a couple for days, but simply no one listened to him anymore. The forces of history had passed him by and he had no means to steer them a different direction (like the hardline coup plotters tried to do to prevent this exact thing). Yeltsin told everyone to "Take as much sovereignty as you can grab!" and soon people were taking the chairs out of their formerly state-owned offices too whole Yeltsin's cronies emptied the state bank accounts.
The collapse of the USSR really shows just how delicate all these social and political structures human create really are. 10 years ago western newspapers would whine about how evil and tyrannical the General Secretary of the USSR was but when the state was faced with total annihilation Gorbachev couldn't find someone willing and able to just shoot Yeltsin and end the chaos. Of course Gorbachev just spent the last several years firing all the people who were the best at shooting enemies of the state in the head so of course there were none to be found to help him and he would have never ordered such a thing anyway. He was chosen as GS because he was soft and friendly. Not saying a harsh ruler would have fixed the situation, maybe it would have been worse, maybe much better, but everyone is constrainted by the conditions around them.
Like Lenin said: there are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen. The collapse of the Soviet Union was one of those historical weeks. I think the US will go a similar way. One week some governor will just decide to not obey the federal government and the President will suddenly discover that he can't make them listen anymore. Some other governors will decide to follow John Calhoun 3.0 and that will be it, the United States will be united no more. Maybe we have a civil war or maybe we just regionally balkanize. The government will be considered powerful until the moment it isn't.
I also wouldnt understate the importance of the party principle. Like we dont think of the US as having a "ruling party" in the Marxist sense since we all have liberal brain damage from growing up here. But the capitalist class has genuine solidarity and levels of power from senators to city council members. It's why, as much as they might bleat about 'muh tyrrany of the ebil democrats' all the republicans across the country ruling their little hills refused to really bit the bullet and follow their leader. Edit: One of the main powers of the capitalist system is that members of the ruling party don't necessarily have to be conscious of their membership. Simply being disciplined by capital depersonalized is often enough to get otherwise good people to become the personification of capital.
Like the CPSU had so removedd by the point of the collapse you didnt have any unifying energy holding it together. There were tons of reasons for this degeneration, and while it is fun to blame Khrushchev it wasn't all his fault. The fact that Gorbachev, who was basically a self avowed socdem, was able to become fucking General Secretary tells you all you need to know about how rancid the party had become by the late 80's. Basically Gorby had the delusion of adopting a system like in the Nordic countries and was shocked when the West fucking jumped in and cannibalized the USSR, fucking moron.
Thats why seeing leaked documents pointing out that Xi is a dyed in the wool Marxist and is improving party education in the CPC is really encouraging more than anything else. Gotta always cultivate people, capital may be helpful, but people is what make things move.
The fact that Gorbachev, who was basically a self avowed socdem, was able to become fucking General Secretary tells you all you need to know
yep yep yep. It was a slow process of rot followed by sudden collapse. Had the structures of state been sturdier and not rotten away with liberalism the situation would have been different. The "hardliners" at least had some communist cadres they could call on and some military officers who were still true believers. But who the fuck was going to help Gorbachev? George HW Bush? The EU? he purged everyone who actually cared about the Soviet Union's continued existence and replaced them with western educated liberals who wanted to line their own pockets
The fact that Gorbachev, who was basically a self avowed socdem, was able to become fucking General Secretary tells you all you need to know about how rancid the party had become by the late 80’s.
The wildest thing is that all the "hardliners" and people Gorbachev would later smear as "stalinists" for any amount of dissent or even just insufficient enthusiasm in supporting him, they all worked with him when he was working for Andropov and after Andropov's death they all thought so highly of him as to support his appointment to General Secretary. Like at that point he doesn't even seem to have been a crypto-sucdem yet, and for several years he carried on with the same reforms Andropov had been overseeing with a few hairbrained ideas of his own tossed in. It's only after he started bringing in more outspoken "reformers" that he started doing shit like putting an anticommunist in charge of the state media, talking about his "wot if social democracy from the left?" nonsense, and actively working to hamstring and isolate the Soviet communist parties at every level.
So either Gorbachev was an incredibly sneaky and skilled fanatic sucdem who managed to trick a bunch of dedicated communists into thinking he was one of them for decades of his career, or he was actually just a kind of dumb and impressionable but likeable bureaucrat who wound up in way over his head and chose the worst allies he possibly could have in trying to keep up the appearance of knowing what he was doing and having a plan. I personally think it's the latter, or something like that: clearly Gorbachev was at least a competent bureaucrat and charismatic enough to get where he was without anyone going "hey why is this dipshit with all these bad ideas continuing to get promoted?", but once he actually had to lead what did he do? He kept doing what his predecessor had been doing but tried to mix in his own ideas too, and his own ideas were terrible and blew up in his face so he went looking for other people with bold ideas and then just did what they suggested to absolutely catastrophic effect, at which point he just sort of panicked and couldn't commit to any plan of action to salvage the situation. It's entirely possible that if he'd never become General Secretary he'd just have continued going with the flow and been forgotten as just a generally competent bureaucrat.
But then there's also a systemic failure of the Soviet education system to actually educate people on how the global economic worked, so you got a generation of liberal professionals who'd listen to fucking Radio Free Europe broadcasts and buy western media on the black market who came to the conclusion that market liberalization would mean they get as many treats as Americans got, without comprehending that American consumption habits were only enabled by imperial extractive mechanisms in subjugated periphery states, and by America's larger industrial base (which the Soviets would have reached parity with in the 70s or so if it weren't for someone's "wot if instead of making industry to build treats, we just made a few treats now?" policies).
Then they got their free market and not only did they not get their treats they also lost stable access to even basic necessities. :surprised-pika:
Honestly I think Gorby was just a complete fucking idiot. He was like any bureaucrat or engineer who had extremely detailed and sophisticated knowledge of a highly specialized area of expertise, the mastery of which gives a massively inflated sense of ones general knowledge. He spent a huge amount of time in the west and, because he was extremely poorly educated in foundational Marxism and general economics, he bought the propaganda bullshit. I cant remember where I read it, but I remember reading he believed that if the USSR just adopted western style "democracy" the the USSR would be welcomed into the 'brotherhood of western nations' with open arms, and was completely shocked when Capital ripped the USSR apart like rabid wolves.
One week some governor will just decide to not obey the federal government and the President will suddenly discover that he can’t make them listen anymore
Already happening with the Oklahoma governor throwing a fit over the vaxxx mandate for National Guardsmen.
I thought that Covid was potentially going to trigger this either internationally or possibly within the US with a split of firmer borders between states/countries doing nothing to keep their constituents safe, and those that want to do something. Turns out pretty much all of them except a few countries wanted to do nothing at all, so there was never an issue
yes this vaccine mandate and all of coronavirus response has really revealed how this country is actually very disunited. Libs can't pretend everyone will "join together" in times of crisis anymore like everyone did to bomb brown people back in 00s and chuds just overtly want to kill their "removed" fellow citizens now. It is not a sustainable situation and it will break down eventually.
One week some governor will just decide to not obey the federal government and the President will suddenly discover that he can’t make them listen anymore.
We saw glimmers of this during the pandemic lol
Not really, the Soviet Union fell apart because of election interference from the west resulting in selling off vast swaths of publicly held industry in addition to the drain of the arms race to defend against western aggression.
This is probably an oversimplification and someone else can surely give a better answer than me.
Makes sense, so what could you compare the USA's collapse too?
I'd say it will look similar but instead of selling off assets internationally the US will implode by cannibalizing itself trying to contain China's economic influence, much like the Soviet Union couldn't maintain an arms race with the US we can't maintain an economic race with China, we already sold off all our production and all we have left is a financial capital bubble backed by a huge military budget and nukes.
I look at it like this. We are still living in the tail end afterglow of the movement that peaked in the 30's and 40's and was finally crushed in the 70's. Everything since the volker shock and stagflation has been prewar capital reasserting itself over the social democracy that the liberals had been driving. I see three outcomes here on out.
The first is the continued trend we have seen of capitalism reasserts itself only in a new more explicit form as capitalism enters into a fascist phase of accumulation through direct dispossession and proletarianization. In this situation the US re-industrializes as it recreates a domestic industrial working class and enters into a genuine imperial war mode. There are lots of aspects to this but tldr, capital successfully rises to meet the challenge of China and we all die of climate change.
The second is a complete collapse of the US as nativist and fascist elements clash with the remnants of the old order. The US system and empire falls apart under pressure, both explicit and implicit, from the rise of China. The US basically falls to a second tier state, sort of how the Europeans stand to the US now. In this scenario the real longterm outcome depends on China and their own internal class struggle. If the socialist elements win we might see a better future where climate change is averted and a better future for humanity is possible. If the capitalist elements win, well "you know the thing" as a wise man once said.
The third is a domestic resurgence of genuine working class energy and a drive toward socialism. I have no idea what this would look like, as it seems to unlikely based on history, but we are seeing a dramatic rise in labor militancy and socialist action. This would be the best of all possible worlds, but also is the one that requires the most work from us.
Mostly I just saw these posts and felt the need to mind vomit.
Biden refusing to pack the court to protect women and defang the conservatives is worse than the chuds pushing to ban abortion in the first place.
It’s an open betrayal of everyone who voted for him. “Nothing will fundamentally change” was a lie, he’s going to sit back and let this shit get worse while he shits his pants shaking hands with the pope.
how would he have done that? he doesn't even have enough juice get extended maternity leave or whatever.
pack the court was a fantasy; if the left/progressives had the political will to make it tenable, a corporate dem would've never made it as the nominee.
He didn't have the juice to get the voting rights billed passed that, while objectively very good, would have absolutely helped Democrats electorally all across the country. How they didn't put the screws to Manchin and Sinema on that one, purely out of self-interest, shows how little power Biden has.
Might not want to assume that Biden used all his tools to try and get it passed. Dem strategy is notoriously uninterested in power.
how would he have done that?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heather_Bresch
Bresch is the daughter of former West Virginia Governor and current U.S. Senator, Joe Manchin. Bresch has been a central figure in two controversies: a 2007 accusation of inflating her resume with an unearned MBA degree, and as the CEO of Mylan during the 2016 controversy over pricing of the company's EpiPen products.
Order the DOJ to begin prosecuting Heather Bresch for price gouging. Tell Joe Manchin that the case will end as soon as Biden's legislative agenda is passed.
Invite Sinema in on the meeting and let her know that you've got a filing cabinet with her name on it.
Average Norms fan: :biden-fall:
Average court packing enjoyer::chavez-guns:
Oh fuck its happening... when is this decision expected to be released? Next spring?
Probably early summer. The Supreme Court typically saves the most impactful decisions for the end of the term, which typically ends the last week of June or the first week of July.
seems calculated. democrats are probably wanting roe v wade to get overturned to drum up support and funding for the midterms
So, I guess my question is, let's say this does get reversed. What happens then?
Abortion immediately becomes completely illegal in 20 or 25 states: 8 with pre-Roe abortion bans from the '60s, and 10-15 or so with "trigger laws" - abortion bans that kick in conditional on Roe being overturned.
15 or so states have protections for abortion rights conditional on Roe being overturned (all blue states) - nothing would change there.
Right, yes, I should have clarified - what does this mean materially?
Obviously, clinics in those states would close, leading to TONS of sickness and death. Would pregnant people in those states be able to obtain abortions via some other method, without travelling? I seem to recall that there is a cheaply available "abortion pill" online, but I might be confusing that with Plan B generics.
A rise in "unofficial" abortions that are more dangerous for patient and doctor (might get arrested). I do not believe there is a reliable abortion pill especially beyond the first trimester. There will probably be a rise in "home remedy" abortions that either just make people sick or induce a miscarriage. Of course, women will also be come more oppressed and dominated by state officials and their chud freikorps, with all the negative consequences that arise from that.
There will probably be a rise in “home remedy” abortions that either just make people sick or induce a miscarriage
This has especially disheartening implications when contextualized with the amount of people in the US who already put stock in things like urine therapy, essential oils, turpentine treatments, etc.
You know them, the "Do your own research" types.
yep ur thinking of mifepristone. When used in combination with misoprostol it successfully terminates 98% of pregnancies, but only up to 10 weeks, 13 if you're lucky. So beyond that would only be possible in a clinic. I think the best course of action if you're a uterus haver in a reactionary state would be to get an IUD or more permanently get your tubes tied.
or more permanently get your tubes tied
If you can even find a doctor who will do it! Many won’t approve the operation until you reach a certain age and/or have a certain number of children.
I may be wrong but seem to recall an element of the Texas bill being that if a woman got an abortion in a different state, they and whoever helped them do it could be prosecuted when they return? Which seems to fly in the face of Full Faith and Credit
Good. This is an issue that alienates most of the working class.
And oh hey it’s the same person who was saying that antivaxxers are “victims of the state”!
