• spectre [he/him]
    ·
    3 years ago

    I feel like there isn't quite enough skepticism about Russia's ability to pull this off at the moment (no sources, I'm lazy, so this post isn't worth much):

    • I'll start by saying that the Ukrainian/NATO propaganda campaign is definitely running full speed, and it's difficult to cancel all that out to get a clear picture (it's not like there's a Russian English-language propaganda campaign to counter it, they've been pretty silent).
    • It seems that a lot, if not all Russian capitalists, and many military leaders were caught off-guard by the invasion. Shit is disorganized since they were originally doing "exercises" or staging for political pressure reasons.
    • There's plenty in the propaganda feed about "low Russian morale" and I think that it may be exaggerated, but it's believable. They're legit dying and I don't have a fucking clue, but this is a war with no inspiration for the infantry grunts. It's obviously political, and they are dying at the hands of a bourgeois enemy for the cause of the Russian bourgeoisie. People can be two-minded for sure, but they also tend to know when things are just hot air, even if they can't put their finger on it (Hypernormalization). If they don't believe in what they're doing, then it's just a matter of time before you cascade into chaos.
    • I'm seeing lazy shit like Russian AA getting struck by a Ukrainian drone which is embarrassing tbh. I do question why they don't have total air superiority by this point, and also why the soldiers are hung out to dry by their orders, their training, and/or their morale as to why they are killed while holding the very weapon they can use to defend themselves. Terrifying to think about not understanding the war you're a combatant in (or just not caring) and just getting taken out cause the reality hadn't even fully ingrained itself in your brain. Anyway this is just an anecdote, but I feel like it ties a few things together.

    We'll see how things actually turn out though. Invading was a fucking stupid move, I just am not sure how stupid, and probably won't even feel like I'm close for a couple years at least. On one hand, I know I'm a dumbass with an internet connection so anything I have to say on the topic is nothing more than speculation, but at the same time I'm wondering if this is just what a total global-scale fuckup looks like. We've seen them before, and we can't forget that Russia has capitalist brainworms that are fundamentally the same as what the US has, just a different color or something. It's totally in the realm of possibility for Putin to be overconfident in the outcome.

    • doctor_sociology [none/use name]
      ·
      3 years ago

      There’s plenty in the propaganda feed about “low Russian morale” and I think that it may be exaggerated, but it’s believable. They’re legit dying and I don’t have a fucking clue, but this is a war with no inspiration for the infantry grunts. It’s obviously political, and they are dying at the hands of a bourgeois enemy for the cause of the Russian bourgeoisie. People can be two-minded for sure, but they also tend to know when things are just hot air, even if they can’t put their finger on it (Hypernormalization). If they don’t believe in what they’re doing, then it’s just a matter of time before you cascade into chaos.

      obviously the russians are tight lipped about casualties but i think the west is hooting and hollering without much evidence. all indications are that hit and run javelin attacks on recce units are causing some vehicles here and there to be disabled but so far i haven't seen any evidence of pitched battles or russian columns being smoked in their entirety.

      what I have seen so far is a 3 part clip of an ukranian brigade on the move where everything was completely wiped. a platoon of tanks, field kitchen, headquarters, workshops etc. the scale of destruction was insane. and yet somehow that one never gets seen on twitter.

      the other sign you can point to the utter lack of defence from the UA is that they still haven't forced russians off highways yet. the only good defense strategy for them was to deny RF forces at critical highway chokepoints and force their wheeled/tracked vehicles into the mud to bog them down. note where all the destroyed russian vehicles are- they are literally all along the highway or some other paved road.

      On one hand, I know I’m a dumbass with an internet connection so anything I have to say on the topic is nothing more than speculation, but at the same time I’m wondering if this is just what a total global-scale fuckup looks like.

      On the other hand, the russians are about to pocket 40% of the UA trapped in the east with a pincer move. For some reason force disposition maps never seem to make it on social media, largely because people would have to answer uncomfortable questions about the pocket that is just a few days away from being formed in the east to encircle a field army-sized ukrainian defense

      • CmmnsmWllWn [comrade/them]
        ·
        3 years ago

        American Russian military experts like Rob Lee and Michael Kofman have been echoing that sentiment from your last paragraph. I think we will have much more clarity by the end of the week if not the next couple days on what Russia’s first stage objective is here.

      • spectre [he/him]
        ·
        3 years ago

        Right, thanks for the reply doctor! It definitely feels like Russia's going to get this done, I just have a bit of a feeling that Ukrainians might be able to grind this down to a molasses pace, but I suppose that's only natural anyway, they've had a few days to regroup. Russia is going to start to see some casualties either way, but obviously video clips and propaganda reports aren't evidence of what's actually going on hour by hour.

        • doctor_sociology [none/use name]
          ·
          edit-2
          3 years ago

          I just have a bit of a feeling that Ukrainians might be able to grind this down to a molasses pace,

          any hope for that faded when they let russians control their highways lmao. first rule of armored warfare is control of communications and transportation nodes. everyone just ignored that the russians were able to drive today a 3.5 mile long convoy of mechanized infantry and heavy armor on the road to kiev without even token opposition.

          to use a ham-fisted gaming analogy: the first person shooter addicts and hearts of iron players will see the russian tanks burning and think it is a sign of victory since they can't imagine warfare as anything other than a personal affair or abstracted entirely from battlefield tactics.

          the wargamer who spends a lot of time moving units around a hexboard will want to know what happened to the rest of the armored column! the fact that we haven't seen any videos from UA contact with russian armor in a pitched battle suggests to me they're losing all of them!!

          • spectre [he/him]
            ·
            3 years ago

            the wargamer who spends a lot of time moving units around a hexboard

            Have you played the video game Mobius Front '83 by chance?

            • doctor_sociology [none/use name]
              ·
              3 years ago

              Mobius Front '83

              i'm too old for that shit, my choice is steel panthers MBT from the mid 1990s before most hexbear users were even born probably: https://www.shrapnelgames.com/Camo_Workshop/MBT/MBT_page.html

              • BeamBrain [he/him]
                ·
                3 years ago

                Yo this game looks cool, I might have to give it a try

                • doctor_sociology [none/use name]
                  ·
                  3 years ago

                  steep learning curve but its still a lot of fun. and the free version comes with 100s of painstakingly modeled units

                  • ssjmarx [he/him]
                    ·
                    3 years ago

                    Is it turn based? Looks cool as hell, added it to my list.

          • anoncpc [comrade/them]
            ·
            edit-2
            3 years ago

            It’s funny since there’s a video where convo of Russian infantry ride along the road, and stop when civilians cross, respect traffic rule. Like a normal drive, lmao

        • spectre [he/him]
          ·
          3 years ago

          The one from the Russian invasion wiki page is linked by this thread.

    • CmmnsmWllWn [comrade/them]
      ·
      3 years ago

      It seems like Russia is very much still holding back at this state but to your point a lot of the sloppiness so far is surprising. My theory is that the special forces soldiers were expected to have killed Zelenskyy and his government by now and that not happening yet has acted as a bottleneck for the rest of the objectives. Hopefully the ceasefire talks are productive today, otherwise I think the ugliness will ramp up and consideration for civilian lives will be minimized in order for them to secure Kiev and/or take our Zelenskyy and his circle by a certain time point.

      No doubt about it that Ukraine/NATO is dominating the propaganda arm of the war but to be fair Russia is the one doing the invasion. NATO/US provocation only excuses so much when the average person thinks “maybe they expanded NATO eastward because Russia is crazy enough to invade its neighbors while killing thousands of civilians in the process” without regard for the hypocrisy of US’ recent imperialistic campaigns in MENA.

      • spectre [he/him]
        ·
        3 years ago

        I'm with you on just about everything

        It seems like Russia is very much still holding back at this state

        I just want to point out that yes they're sending in the B-team, but if not committing A-team resources to this under any circumstances was never an option (which would be wise imo), then I don't thinks this point matters at all. Nevertheless, we have no fucking idea if their latest capabilities are in play or not.

        • doctor_sociology [none/use name]
          ·
          3 years ago

          Nevertheless, we have no fucking idea if their latest capabilities are in play or not.

          You are seeing a lot of upgunned t-72s with modern enhancements but not a whole lot of t-90s or even the new armatas in the field for a reason. russian doctrine calls for holding back those units as maneuver groups to exploit a breakthrough. since this war is more about bringing ukraine to heel and less about pouring through the north german plain i doubt they will make an appearance

          • spectre [he/him]
            ·
            3 years ago

            Interesting, mind if I ask if you have a place to read more about this sort of thing?

          • Bulma [she/her]
            ·
            3 years ago

            I heard the modded t-72s were good and the t-90s were trash, that wrong?

            • doctor_sociology [none/use name]
              ·
              edit-2
              3 years ago

              considering the t-90 is just a reworked t-72 with modern materials, optics and electronics i would disagree. the t-80 line was a dead end so they went back to basics after the panic from the iraqis getting smashed in '91 died down. people realized the steel tipped AP rounds didn't have a chance to beat M1 armor and the export models were pretty questionable to begin with.

              a principle of tank warfare is that who shoots first often wins the fight, and everything the russians put into modernizing the t-72 line works towards that concept.

              • BeamBrain [he/him]
                ·
                3 years ago

                This sounds fascinating and I'd love to learn more. What were the problems with the T-80?

                • dinklesplein [any, he/him]
                  ·
                  edit-2
                  3 years ago

                  I'm not OP, and my specialization is in WW2 Naval gunnery and not land combat. With that said, I believe that the T-80's issues are that it's simply not quite as economic as the T-72 series, uses more fuel, and tended to need much more maintenance because of the gas-turbine engine compared to other Soviet designs. It was mostly for those economic reasons that the Russians dropped it as a developmental base after the fall of the union, as there weren't any funds left to maintain them. With that said, the Tank still had unmatched tactical maneuverability for its time, and I believe its reputation was largely tarnished by how hard the Russian forces got owned by ex-Soviet Chechen forces in the Battle of Grozny. The T-80 series is still getting modernisations though, and I believe the Armata series is a pretty large departure from the T-72/T-90s anyways.

    • mittens [he/him]
      ·
      3 years ago

      Not an expert either, I don't know what pull this off exactly entails here, because the only way for Putin to "win" is Zelensky agreeing at the negotiating table, but I don't see Putin resisting a protracted war for very long.

      In an immediate sense, the Russian army has dominance over the Ukrainian army because I just don't see a scenario where you're both winning and arming insurgents. In fact arming insurgents seems very much like a last resort.