I'm trying to think of the most jokerfying thing that could happen in Florida so that the actual results feel better:

Amendment 4 (abortion amendment) gets a majority vote of like 59% but ultimately doesn't pass because it needs 60%. Hell, maybe it just barely scraps 60%, and I get to celebrate for exactly one night before fucking Desantis finds a way to invalidate the results the next day.

Meanwhile amendment 3 (weed amendment) passes with something crazy like 70%+, and white small business tyrants rejoice. (I don't have a problem with weed, voted yes on it myself, but I would lose my shit if amendment 3 passed without 4.)

I drink.

I think narrow Trump win by winning Pennsylvania. It's all vibes based though, no data

I think Harris has it.

• The pollsters are over-correcting because their failure in 2016 gave them PTSD
• The events of the last week before the actual vote are extremely significant - and those include two of Trump's biggest gaffes this whole cycle
• Trump has never actually been super popular. Despite her attempts to throw it Harris is still closer to the "generic Democrat" who easily beats him than she is to Hillary
• The effects of COVID are currently understated by pollsters. That killed way more Rs than it did Ds.
• The effects of Republicans concentrating into places like Florida and Texas is currently understated by pollsters.

But then again I'm currently on the worst losing streak of my life counting cards so maybe it's best to bet against me right now.

I’m slightly on the side of Harris winning.

• I’ll give dems this, they’ve at least begun to develop a sense of party loyalty that the gop has.

• Tim Walz was admittedly an attempt to appeal to some economic populism. I have no faith they’ll make good on this, but I as per usual hope to be proven wrong.

• The gamergate sauce is dying to some extent. Gamergaters have been in victory dance mode for 10 years after winning and even among apolitical people I’ve seen them tell these red-baiters to fuck off

• Hilary Clinton in particular had a LOT of baggage and even in 2016 Trump barely won

• tons of early voting. Generally dems do better when more people vote

• I think overturning Roe was the GOP’s equivalent of Obgerfell, the pyrrhic culture war victory that they didn’t want to truly win.

• Also I’ve noticed a bit of the idea of fully forming a “uniparty”, dems love kowtowing to the gop and if I were a fascist, I’d want my most vocal dissenters to get on my case for not being fascist enough.

Oh, and a lathe for the road. I can see immediately after a Harris win that dems will smugly tell the left: “see? We don’t need you after all!” even before they go back to brunch.

I am currently thinking it's going to be a pretty clean Harris win. Ask me again in an hour. I think she's done everything she can to fuck this up but she still wins due to the very unpopular abortion restrictions and people being tired of Trump as a person.

My prediction: we're not getting an official winner announced till Friday.

Other prediction: Kamala wins but Dems lose the Senate.

2016 but closer (trump win)

Someone's doing a mass shooting at a polling center

My prediction is everyone will be happy and completely normal about the election results

I'm predicting Trump takes it with a popular vote loss, as is tradition. The only states in serious contention are like Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Nevada (which barely matters). Harris would need to win all four to take home the EC—Trump needs just one (except for Nevada).

A genocide enabler will win.

My funniest prediction I've had since like 2 years ago was that Trump wins the election, Biden dies like a day later getting Harris sworn in as a lame duck....and then Trump dies 2 weeks before taking office and JD vance becomes president.

...I feel like we don't live in that timeline though. As of right now I think Harris just clinches it with the popular vote and the EC...then we spend the next few months litigating it both publicly and in various courts. Would be wild if the supreme court pulled a 2000 thing again...but I feel like that probably won't happen.

My prediction is at least 2 degrees celsius warming by the end of the century, a thing that whoever wins the US election in 2024 will help accelerate.

Actually 23 of the 30 something Senate seats up for grab are Democrats or caucus with them. There's no way the Dems keep the Senate.