I just read that over 160.000 Ukranian men have died in the war and over 400.000 have been wounded, the rest of the population is scattered around Europe, and the population still living in the country will have to deal with the destruction of builidings and civilian infrastructure. Ukraine was already in debt before the war and now It's gonna be a way worse problem.
Even if Ukraine manages to get a "victory" over Russia, how is it gonna rebuild the country without money and without people, because I honestly don't think that many Ukranian refugees will come back home after the war.
I honestly don’t think that many Ukranian refugees will come back home after the war.
They will. Being a refugee kinda sucks, many still have family & friends in Ukraine as well as their homes (if it's still standing). There are a decent number or refugees already returning out of their own volition while the war is still ongoing. People are attached to their homes, and living in a different country where you don't speak the language etc isn't great.
Also, a lot of European countries will simply kick them out once the war is over, again, this is already happening in some places. The majority of Ukrainians will return, guaranteed.
And 160.000 dead is a huge, tragic number, but it's not enough to cause a dent in the 40 million population of Ukraine. It's a really big country.
Ukraine is fucked because it'll get looted by foreign capital the second the war ends, manpower is gonna be the least of their worries.
Small correction: the looting is already happening. They have a website for auctioning off government-owned property.
Last I saw before the war the population of Ukraine was estimated at around 30 million. 40 is what it was when the ussr collapsed.
before the war the population of Ukraine was estimated at around 30 million. 40 is what it was when the ussr collapsed.
:jesus-christ:
Add another 10 million to the black book of communism everyone
From what I understand the two main things capital wants to loot are farm land and manpower. They want all the productive farm land as climate change gets worse, and they want tens of millions of destitute Ukrainians to drive wages down and keep them down across Europe.
Black rock and other private investment firms buy up as much of the country as they can while leaving a sliver for a few Ukrainian elites to live comfortably and pay hired goons to keep the rest of the people working for slavery wages on the farms and factories.
Someone post that video proclaiming that Ukraine will be rebuilt into a technogical utopia by 2030. Shit looked like a test reel for Star Fleet HQ from the last Star Trek films.
yeah I mean they'll just put Ukraine on the Blockchain. Blockkraine or whatever. boom fixed, utopia
Exactly, AI will run everything and children will play in the streets, birds will sing, the sky will always be blue.
That video was fucking insane. They said they were gonna replace judges with AI.
:libertarian-approaching: gonna buy two mail-order brides
more seriously, they're gonna have the taliban, but nazis instead of reactionary muslims but western companies will get to extract fossil fuel and mineral wealth.
No American politician will ever again be able to point to EU nations and say "They can do a better quality of life why can't we?"
I think there will be a purge of anyone not deemed loyal enough and the Red Scare will get to global hysteria levels.
Rise of far right openly fascist leaders under the :unlimited-power: galactic national security and scapegoating of anyone commie or under the increasing umbrella of "woke."
Be wary of any figures about deaths/casualties in this kind of war but kills and wounded does seem to be in the hundreds of thousands.
As for their future - what happens to any state that's subject to a full-blown proxy war? Korea, Afghanistan, Syria, Congo, Cambodia, Angola, they get long-term destabilised, possibly indefinitely split into two or more eternally warring states and overall absolutely screwed over. However the war goes, this is now like Ukraine's future.
Korea seems to be doing decently compared to the rest. Like, it's a capitalist hellhole with all the horrors blocked out when it's shown in the media, but you don't hear about people doing tourism in Congo or Syria like you do SK.
The US massively invested in South Korea since we needed a bulwark there in order to counter China. I'm not sure the US is still capable of that level of investment in infrastructure though.
Korea was also massively boosted by being allowed to export to Japan and the US, along with a millitary dictatorship that focused heavily on economic development and in particular the use of 5 year plans for industry. Turns out that receiving hundreds of millions of dollars in foreign aid that doesn't just get siphoned off via NGOs and compradors can actually do wonders for an economy that wants to build out its industry.
Wasn't foreign aid like 80%+ of the ROK's economy for a decade or more?
I think that was for the first decade after the Korean War had ended and the Americans had flattened most of the peninsula. So I guess foreign aid was the BandAid to prevent an immediate return to communism, since being flattened tends to make people angry.
Ukraine is somewhat different bc prior to the fall of the USSR Ukraine was an economically well developed industrialized nation with modern infrastructure and a powerful agriculture industry.
Liberal institutions like the IMF and the World Bank are already talking about ripping Ukraine to shreds if they manage to win the war.
Their entire economy will be privatized and plundered as payment for all those missiles.
So you know that downward slope that happened with shock therapy post soviet union?
Poland is gonna annex Lwów and Kresy any day now to reestablish intermarum. :so-true:
Annoyed assholish remarks aside, probably half or so of Ukrainians in Poland won't ever return considering it'll be the poorest country in Europe with a wrecked infrastructure and possibly PTSD-inducing for many. There'll be a constant racial tension between xenophobic Poles and the new Ukrainian minority, Turks in Germany style.
A push for annexation of pre-1939 Polish territory is a very fringe position even among the far-right, but "these areas are part of our heritage and homeland, so Polish culture should be preserved there" is less unpopular.
Meaning there'll probably be some fascist settlers buying land and vacant homes in the area. However, due to a low quality of life, and the very strong local presence of a far-right that emphasizes a personality cult of a leader that partook in a Genocide of Polish people, I don't think there'll be that many people going there with polish flags in hand.
I am not aware of any such things happening in Eastern Lithuania either, despite that also being an area associated with pre-war Polish nationalism. (Piłsudski had the area annexed militarily between 1920 and 1922 after all)
What's most likely to happen is that Ukraine becomes a miserable piece of hell on earth with a majoritarian hegemony for Ultra nationalist political forces like post-war Bosnia and Hercegovina. 40% unemployment, poverty like in your average Central African country, 80+% of the youth wanting to leave at the soonest occasion and a deep political apathy with election turnouts of 25%
Yeah, I don't buy the Polish annexation story either. The main ideological justification for western involvement in the war has been the sanctity of Ukrainian sovereignty all along. Suddenly dissolving the Ukraine would not make sense. And besides that you don't need to rule an area formally to exploit it or put military bases there, in fact having a local puppet government makes it easier to get plausible deniability for the shit you're doing.
