My theory pertaining to 2020 was that the demographic I call "MAGA wife" won the election for the Dems. MAGA wife has to put up with MAGA husband, and in the privacy of their own home MAGA husband says the most deranged off the wall shit imaginable. While MAGA wife may not like liberals, she understands her husband is a moron and should not have any agency in the electoral process. So MAGA wife will vote opposite of her husband just so their household vote is nullified. I don't see MAGA wife following that trend in '22.
Second pandemic hits while this one is still going. Everyone dies or enough do that the state collapses. No midterms, just Mad Max now
COVID fucked Trump and COVID will fuck the dems
Covid is the great humbler
covid killed 1 million trump supporters this will be a breeze -average lib
:liberalism:
I thought Biden would tank the election but he didn't, and trump is becoming more irrelevant as the days go on. It wouldn't surprise me if the democrats manage a win in the midterms
Oh he tried though. The election was closer than in 2016 with a massive surge in deaths, impeachment, and 15% unemployment.
I expect nothing less than a massacre. Any blue seat not solidly in an urban core is up for grabs.
Trump is irrelevant but I can't think of anyone who isn't absolutely pissed at the Democratic party right now, and our system only offers the Republicans as an alternative. If the election was today they'd get their ass kicked
Pretty much the only reason Biden won was the dang cheeto was doing a bad job handling covid. Soon we're going to have unprecedented daily deaths + all the other various reasons people hate him for.
Trump got kinda screwed because if covid happened a year earlier the mass deaths and lack of any gov response would have been normalized by election day.
True, I think the fact that Trump got covid right before the election sealed his fate. If it was pushed a year back with the same vaccine timeline, he probably would have won.
I really wish the chapo boys were still infested with enough electoralism brainworms that they would do a midterm livestream and we'd get drunk screaming Matt again. They're too checked out of US electoralism to give a shit now
Honestly i'm glad they are. They just had a extra episode where amber interviews some candidate and I can't help but be like, who the fuck cares anymore about some fucking state senate seat, or electoralism at all?
the 2018 election livestream was the greatest political coverage of all time and i will brook no truck on the matter
yeah pre 2020 primaries was great and i loved it. but I cant imagine caring about electoralism after watching what happened in 2020
It's funny, February 2020 was probably the most optimistic I've ever felt about electoral politics in my entire life. But by the end of March 2020 I had completely written it off forever.
Same. It was a crucial period in my life; I just read state and revolution and it really resonated with me, around jan 2020. So i was like, "If bernie wins, maybe we can do some cool stuff without a revolution, but if he loses, i'm just identifying as a communist forever"
The post-Bernie depression hit me hard but seeing the riots in the summer of 2020 brought me back and reminded me that there are avenues for politics outside of electoralism in this country and we should actively be pursuing them
Summer 2020 I was like “There’s a non-zero chance the United States doesn’t last through the end of the year” and unfortunately I was wrong, this death spiral is taking much longer
there are avenues for politics outside of electoralism in this country and we should actively be pursuing them
shame that we aren't
I can't even go back and enjoy that stuff. It just kills me inside thinking about being foolish and having hope
I dunno I’m digging Matt’s whole American Calvinism/ politics strain of philosophy lately
Did you see the last cushvlog where he breaks down the whole ass history of Christianity and shows how becoming the state religion of the Roman empire fucked it?
Please god let Matt live to be 150 and give him a set of AV Retainers
That was genuinely incredible, and way more comprehensible than most of the cushvlogs
Literally a miracle. Someone needs to make a "best of" supercut of the cushvlogs because this is the only one I can actually imagine sending to someone, and even then it's a very small niche of my friends
I am 50% sure I am gonna send it to my religious sister. Probably call it blaspheme, but still
I mean that rocks too, but Matt telling everyone to kill themselves was also good fun
They'll probably ramp coverage back up soon. There's really not much to talk about with the midterms yet besides the general feeling that its gonna be a big loss
If the gnostics are right and God is a cruel monster. Which like, isn't out the question.
I think we're praying for a blowout as a massive reaction against Biden's genocidal policies. Even better if voting participation just drops like a rock. I still find it difficult to discount the possibility that we live in hell and they'll manage to hold onto a single legislative branch after a close group of races with record participation.
That being said, if the fed does induce a recession to fight rising wages and a labor force with more wriggle room (which seems to be the plan), they're probably worse off than after announcing that they hope your child chokes to death on a ventilator. 2020 was probably supposed to be worse than 2008, but we poomped our way out of that for awhile. It's now looking like it'd be a much more severe crash combined with the most conservative response yet.
it's all about the fed interest rate stuff. It was getting some traction in the news a few months ago, but you kinda had to look for it. I'm not an econ nerd or anything so I might get some of these points wrong but this is generally how I understand it, anyone feel free to chime in.
The Fed is still keeping interest rates low to "promote growth" or keep the zombie economy stumbling on by pumping in cheap credit. But low interest rates are part of why we're seeing this inflation stuff. However if the Fed did raise interest rates it could cause the economy to totally shit itself because, well look at it, it's in a bizzaro speculative bubble and super unstable. This is what the wonks call COVID recovery, but it's more keeping a totally speculative market shambling on.
Inflation is really bad for capital, not because of rising prices, but because of two things:
1: it makes borrowed money less valuable, if you take out a home loan for 200k, but inflation halves the value of the dollar, assuming your wage grows somewhat, that amount you owe is just worth less now.
2: it undermines the international US financial neo-imperialist project. The dollar as the world's reserve is potentially threatened and it makes it harder to keep the flow of cheap consumer goods coming in when the dollar is worth less compared to international currencies.
So yeah, rock and a hard place, it's either inflation or popping the speculative market bubble, and what would we do if a car company run by a meme man isn't worth 4x more than Toyota which produces 20x the number of cars.
Is there a chance that we get anoher Volker-Shock from the Fed raising interest rates? Since that was the way they deliberately induced a recession, and kept it going for a good while, making millions of americans umemployed and more precarious than ever.
Obviously raising the interest rate up to the same crazy level as what they did in the 1970's seems improbable, but I'll bet it also felt unlikely right up untill the point where the Fed actually did it. And the reacionary backlash the first time ushered in an era of Reaganomics, with disasterous impact on both the planet and the average worker in America.
You'd think after covid killing mostly older people already, and the vaccination gap causing most of the rest of the deaths to be heavily focused around republicans, that the Dems would have a leg up for the election. And yet, it's quite likely they still lose it anyway.
Dems mostly rely on old wine moms and old black people, this is disastrous for them.
Deliberate brush war with China over Taiwan (i.e. Taiwan is pressured into attacking Chinese interests in the SCS), Biden takes hardliner stance to the right of the Republicans and wins the election just before things heat up enough for the US to lose it's hilariously vulnerable surface navy.
I mean, probably, but the US is possibly already far enough gone that it might contemplate a nuclear exchange if it actually loses the first stand up fight it's had since at least Vietnam and probably WW2. I've mentioned this before, but a US carrier group is the equivalent of a Roman Legion, and losing one or more would make collapse clear and force a heavy-handed punitive response to stave off panic.
It's hard to predict US reaction to losing it's ability to project power in the west Pacific. Doubt it would be good even (especially) for US allies
Delta airlines will never allow a single bomb to touch an airstrip they're connected to.
The two main boogymen of post-cataclysm US (nuclear war or facism) don't really scare me because the state is totally captured by capital and will only act in ways that support short term profit. It's why I don't see a military conflict in the first place, it would probably accompany cutting off all trade with China, which would end the United States in a month. So it would come down to China deciding to provoke the US, which it also does not want to do.
I also don't see a facist movement taking off in the same way because:
- They won, we are already the 4th Reich.
- The dipshits who don't get it (see: the """grassroots""" right of the 2010s) are very small in number, are constantly infighting and are controlled from the top down by the state.
- The main ideological movement that it could draw support from (Qanon) are piss drinkers who have been committing ritual suicide for the past two years
- The sort of redistribution and basic upkeep of existing services needed to manufacture the consent of an explicitly facist US would, again, not be allowed by Delta Airlines.
Killing your kids and starting the second great recession is not good for business a year from now. It isn't good six months from now. But it'll let you party for the next two weeks, and whatever happens after might as well not be real.
I agree, it's very unlikely unless collapse has already detached non military-industrial capital from state control and there's just flailing. Don't think we're close to the amount of institutional rot where Delta and Lockheed-Martin are having a deep state civil war.
But "A way for Biden to win" was the topic, and while we're dreaming up six impossible things before breakfast may as well add one more.
I would love to see the propaganda campaigns from both parties, trying to condemn each other. Cruelty Squad Russiagate nonsense. So many names the 40 most mentally ill news website commentors would expect you to hold in the same level of importance as Linclon.
I agree, but Rome lost a few legions well before it fell. The US could very well just get people into a nationalistic rage like Pearl Harbor
Only thing I can think of is a major terrier attack by a far right group or Q cultist that specifically states it’s over Trump.
The better question is: when the inevitable spanking happens how long till they purge every progressive from the party?
I firmly believe they won't lose the midterms. They'll drum up a couple months of propaganda on CNN and squeak past the finish line.
Fact is that Dems only have 1 Senator who's probably going to lose - Warnock in GA against former NFL star Herschel Walker - but the Dems has at least 3 close races to watch for a potential gain - PA, WI and FL. If they get the abortion voices really loud they could win all 3 imo. I also think the House will retain a slim Dem majority due to redistricting, which in many states is done by an independent committee rather than state legislatures.
I still think they lose the House but yeah no way a massacre is going to happen. As you said redistricting has gone in their favor, the number of competitive seats have gone down, and they don't hold enough seats for there to be big losses anyway.
Don’t think they going to come close at florida though. That state is pretty much gone for them
Democrats don't turn out in Mid-terms, Republicans do. Taking Florida during a non-presidential year just doesn't seem possible, especially when conservatives a moving to FL and think Biden is commie satan.
Like, isn’t the last election Florida have pretty high turnout because that the “ultimate one” according to the dem, and in the end Trump win it by a handful. At this point, can’t really assume that register dem at Florida going to vote in line with the party especially the demographic and the peoples in that state.
Nah, they have a very good chance in FL, unless you believe that Floridians actually like DeSantis. Rubio is running against Val Demings, a black moderate cop married to a cop, good odds Dems take it imo.
DeSantis is one of the most popular republicans in the country, as horrifying as that is.
You’ll be surprised. The Cuban over there Love the like of trump and DeSantis, especially their golden boy rubio, the gop already successfully brand every dem as communist, and you know those Cuban that got kick out by Castro hate them, combine with the pan handler, the gop hold stronghold there
Cubans are a relatively small part of Florida, and shrinking. Plus the younger generation does not have the same biases, they lean Dem.
Plus the younger generation does not have the same biases, they lean Dem
Yea, about that. After the last election, highly doubt it.
Last election was due to Facebook failing to flag/remove fake news in Spanish. That problem has been fixed.
lol, you can't change peoples mind two years just like that, especially with the dem abysmal performance right now, and it's not only facebook, it's also local tv too spreading fake news.
Dems don't have a dismal performance right now. We have the strongest economy, ever, and the GOP is making an unprecedented attack on Democracy, not to mention the threat to abortion rights.
So if the Democrats pick up senate seats, who are the democrats that join Sinema and Manchin in roadblocking Build Back Biden and new voting rights bills?
You won't even know their names. Every time someone says their name on TV, the Peanuts adult chatter will be played over it.
BBB will pass as soon as inflation calms down. No one will stonewall voting rights after the Midterms.
Isn’t senate something something can’t lose? Also if they fuck up abortion rights, prolly enough to rally supporters
Yea, but they can also stop the normal shit like the highway bill etc.
Yes, the Dems only have 1 Senate seat at risk while the GOP have multiple. There's just a lot of Leftists who can't admit that they were wrong ("Dems will lose miserbaly unless they do everything we say!!!! And oh yea it'll be fascism just like the DNC said!!!")
This will not stop them from eating shit in the house and in state and county elections
They absolutely will not eat shit in the House. Hot take, but I think they will gain seats based on how the maps have changed after the last census.
Only 1? I see Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and maaaaybe even Colorado and New Hampshire, depending on how bad they fucked up.
Arizona and Nevada are guaranteed Dem wins after all the transplants from California, who unlike Texas tend to be a broad cross section of society looking for low CoL, not Chuds running away from west coast libs or whatever. Colorado and New Hampshire have far, far too many 30-50 year old whites with college degrees (who are like cult members) for the GOP to have a chance, also easy Dem wins.
Biden only won Arizona by 0.3%, and Nevada by 2.4%. Has there been such a substantial shift in their populations in the last year to overcome just the fact that the incumbent party usually does worse in midterms, let alone how awful the Dems have done?
Colorado and New Hampshire are definitely a stretch, Biden won them by 13% and 7.3%, so they’d have to fuck up pretty badly but I don’t know that it’s impossible.
I'm in Nevada, and I'd be pretty surprised if the Dems lost here given the electoral trajectory of the last 15 years. One scenario I can foresee that might lead to a loss, though, is the state Dems self sabotaging because democratic socialists took over the state machinery last year and the mainstream libs are pissed about it. I could absolutely see them deliberately throwing the election just to spite the left.
Parties doing worse in the midterms is not a rule. Dems will do better because the GOP is still full of psychos which the Dems will hammer home after the Supreme Court overturns Roe v Wade, and AZ and NV have incumbents who will be nudged across the finish line.
Why would you expect the Dems to do better in 2022 than they did in 2020? They’ve done everything they can to ensure they lose the next election, I expect every election that’s anywhere even close they’ll lose.
Yes, capital always wins. The Democrats are not The House, and do often lose.
Democrats are the party of Capital, they even count people like George Bush and Dick Cheney in their ranks right now, experts at *ahem* getting results when it comes to elections. Plus, demographics are destiny. 2016 was just the Dems being caught lackin', won't happen again.
The Dems and Reps are both the party of Capital. That’s why Capital always wins. Capital doesn’t care which one wins, they always come out on top.
And I don’t know that I agree about “demographics are destiny.” Dems have basically been saying that for decades now and it hasn’t really come true yet, and in 2020 every minority demographic voted more for Trump than they did in 2016.
and in 2020 every minority demographic voted more for Trump than they did in 2016.
Citation needed. The shift in the black vote was imperceptible, and the shifts in the Hispanic vote were due to misinformation in Spanish not being as policed as in English, that's been fixed.
The Dems and Reps are both the party of Capital. That’s why Capital always wins. Capital doesn’t care which one wins, they always come out on top.
The absolutely care because in the present moment, Democrats are better for capital's overall interests than the Republicans, who are dominated by nasty provincial petit-boug that want to upset the conditions necessary to continue to squeeze profit out of the global capitalist system.
I know this one if they fix the election they will win. And all American politics is is the two big parties both trying to out fix the election like a game of spy vs spy.
