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Pretty good video. I think the point he makes that Ukraine is going to turn the tide numerically is important, 'cause it brings up a few interesting questions:

1. He mentioned that Ukraine's territorial defense units have been pretty good at defending cities, but lack the equipment/training to carry out complex offensives. So will Ukraine's mobilization effort eventually translate into them retaking lost territory (through receiving better equipment and/or sheer numbers), or will it be limited to only stopping any further Russian advances?

2. Russia already started out the war at a numerical disadvantage afaik, but were able to win by out maneuvering the Ukrainians on the ground, and destroy their logistics from the air. Specifically, Russia has been targeting a lot of Ukraine's oil depots in order to prevent Ukrainian forces from having the fuel to maneuver. So will Russia be able to effectively counter Ukraine's mass mobilization by destroying their ability to deploy those forces where they need them to be?

3. Will Russia be forced to officially declare war and mobilize it's reservist forces at some point?

As a side note, I think his overall thesis is correct, but also I think he's probably still overestimating the Ukrainian forces in some ways. For example, he mentioned something about Russia not having air superiority, and while it's true that Ukraine still has some of it's air force left, they're in no position to challenge the Russians in the sky and they've lost something like 8 aircraft in the past week. So claiming that Russia doesn't have air superiority seems a bit strange to me. Also, the part where he brought up the tractors and how the Ukrainians are claiming to be recovering more vehicles than they're losing seems to indicate that he's not very skeptical of statements by the Ukrainian side.

If this catches on…

anon please report in for your annual civil defense training